PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Only four teams qualified for the playoffs this year, the lowest number in our four-year history. A few months ago, Baseball Prospectus did a study of previous championship teams and determined that the the most common attributes were (1) power pitchers (high K totals) (2) a dominant closer, and (3) a good defense. With that in mind, let's take a look at the survivors.
WESTPARK
(1) Power pitchers. A strikout rate of 7.5 or more per 9 innings is generally regarded as indicative of a strong power pitcher. Kazmir (10.6), Vazquez (9.1), and Schilling (8.6) easily meet this. What's more, unlike many power pitchers, they feature good to excellent control, especially Schilling (1.5 BB/9) and Vazquez (2.2). Grade: A.
(2) Closer. Say no more. Joe Nathan led the league in saves with 42 (in 46 opportunities), and had a 1.31 ERA and a ridiculous WHIP of .66. Grade: A+
(3) Defense. More than an Achilles heel: the defense would have to go up several levels merely to be labeled "porous." They had the 2nd-lowest X-out %, and when they did manage to get to a ball, the result often wasn't any better: they had the 2nd-most errors in the league, leading to 75 unearned runs, a performance which was exceeded only by Richmond with 84. Grade: F.
CONN RIVER
(1) Power Pitching: Although only Cain and Weaver finished above the 7.5 cutoff, Padilla and Millwood were relatively close (6.8 and 6.6, respectively). And they have a lot of flamethrowers in the bullpen, enough so that as a team they finished 2nd in strikeouts. Grade: A-.
(2) Closer. A problem. Jonathon Broxton had the highest closer rating, with a 2, and did save 19 games, with a 1.80 ERA. But he blew 6 saves, and overall the bullpen converted 68% of their save chances, good only for sixth place. Grade: C+
(3) Defense. Because of platoon splits, defense is slightly worse against lefties than righties. Finished slightly below average in errors, slightly above in X-out %. Grade: C+.
MAUI
(1) Power Pitching: Nothing special; only Burnett exceeds the 7.5 threshold, and that barely (7.6). Finished in the middle of the pack in strikeouts overall. Grade: C.
(2) Closer: Another team with no true closer. Farnsworth saved 20 out of 25, with a 2.80 ERA, but that could be a fluke; his real-life ERA was 4.36, and he gave up over 2 hits per nine innings there than he did for the Maulers. Overall, the team converted only 64% of its save chances. The bullpen did have a 2.90 ERA, good for 2nd in the league behind Westpark's 2.70. Grade: C.
(3) Defense: Strong up the middle (9), and decent on the corners (12), although LoDuca has a relatively weak arm at catcher. Fourth in errors, but 1st in X-out %. Grade: A.
VIRGINIA BEACH
(1) Power Pitching: Ben Sheets (11.2 K/9) and Brad Penny (8.0) can bring it, the others, not so much. That includes the bullpen; overall, the team finished 11th in the league in strikeouts. Grade: C-.
(2) Closer: Joe Borowski didn't have great peripheral stats, but he did save 28 games in 31 chances. Overall, the bullpen was decent, saving 72% of their chances and compiling a 3.55 ERA, about middle of the pack. Grade: B
(3) Defense: Not particularly good up the middle (12), and bad on the corners (15). Barrett's got a very weak arm at catcher. Despite that, they finished better than league average in errors, and about league average in X-out %. Grade: C.
SUMMARY: This is a toss-up; all four teams have strengths and flaws. On paper, Westpark would look to have the best chance, with a powerful lineup, three top-notch starters, and a lights-out closer, but they lack a dominant starter like a Sanchez or Weaver, and it's easy to see their defense costing them a game or two, death in a short series. Conn River's hitting and pitching is strong, and their defense is adequate, but you have to wonder if the lack of a true closer is going to hurt them. Maui isn't going to make any mistakes on defense, and they've got sluggers like Ryan Howard and David Wright, but the lineup's thin after that: they finished near the league bottom in home runs and runs scored. VBO lacks the long-ball punch -- only one player hit 20 or more home runs -- but they led the league in batting average, and their ability to score runs is demonstrated by the fact that Bobby Abreu led the league in that category.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Strat-O-Matic Report - Team Batting and Pitching
LEAGUE GRAND TOTALS (primary report) FOR 2007 Liberty League
TEAM AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS E
2007 Richmond .276 5682 908 1567 321 64 182 855 173 53 144
2007 VirginiaBeach .275 5585 812 1538 353 41 136 771 116 49 100
2007 Maui .271 5674 721 1538 325 34 135 689 99 33 97
2007 Westpark .267 5706 887 1521 361 27 223 851 48 7 117
2007 ConnRiver .263 5707 822 1501 354 43 190 784 90 26 105
2007 Castaic .262 5707 719 1493 305 32 164 692 131 24 89
2007 Texas .262 5673 748 1484 333 51 185 709 47 24 110
2007 WestAllis .253 5626 762 1426 314 30 233 735 65 31 112
2007 Brooklyn .251 5571 677 1396 313 38 186 639 93 33 91
2007 Roswell .250 5601 710 1403 282 45 144 660 161 31 102
2007 Marriottsville .248 5646 681 1400 329 44 135 654 25 12 86
2007 Bell Heights .246 5598 727 1376 306 16 191 688 39 21 103
-------------------- ---- ----- ---- ----- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
LEAGUE TOTALS .260 67776 9174 17643 3896 465 2104 8727 1087 344 1256
TEAM ERA W L IP H R ER HR BB SO OAVG
2007 Maui 3.59 88 74 1477.2 1346 641 590 137 568 1147 .245
2007 Westpark 3.67 97 65 1489.0 1457 682 607 143 433 1201 .255
2007 Marriottsville 3.81 80 82 1495.0 1364 677 633 153 491 1136 .244
2007 ConnRiver 3.84 91 71 1503.2 1339 702 641 167 601 1214 .238
2007 Castaic 3.86 79 83 1491.0 1300 706 640 209 645 1290 .235
2007 VirginiaBeach 3.95 91 71 1462.1 1438 712 642 170 504 978 .257
2007 Bell Heights 4.22 79 83 1480.0 1456 744 694 173 464 1141 .259
2007 Brooklyn 4.45 72 90 1460.2 1428 786 723 164 560 1251 .256
2007 WestAllis 4.59 76 86 1475.0 1501 804 752 203 531 1124 .263
2007 Texas 4.72 71 91 1453.0 1606 842 762 169 500 1012 .282
2007 Roswell 4.90 71 91 1468.1 1592 873 800 196 587 957 .279
2007 Richmond 5.64 77 85 1470.0 1816 1005 921 220 582 1025 .306
-------------------- ----- --- --- ------- ----- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----
LEAGUE TOTALS 4.27 972 972 17725.2 17643 9174 8405 2104 6466 13476 .260Strat-O-Matic Report - Final Standings
LEAGUE STANDINGS FOR 2007 Liberty League
Aaron WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2007 ConnRiver CRP 91 71 .562 ---- *WON*
2007 Maui MMM 88 74 .543 3.0
2007 Castaic CAQ 79 83 .488 12.0
2007 Bell Heights BEL 79 83 .488 12.0
2007 WestAllis WAC 76 86 .469 15.0
2007 Roswell ROS 71 91 .438 20.0
Ruth WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2007 Westpark WES 97 65 .599 ---- *WON*
2007 VirginiaBeach VBO 91 71 .562 6.0
2007 Marriottsville MAR 80 82 .494 17.0
2007 Richmond RAZ 77 85 .475 20.0
2007 Brooklyn BRK 72 90 .444 25.0
2007 Texas TEX 71 91 .438 26.0
OVERALL RECORD
Team WON LOST PCT HOME ROAD LEFT RIGHT EXTRA 1-RUN LAST 10 STREAK
BEL 79 83 .488 36-45 43-38 26-14 53-69 12- 6 24-26 6-4 Lost 1
BRK 72 90 .444 40-41 32-49 18-25 54-65 10-10 24-23 4-6 Lost 4
CAQ 79 83 .488 38-43 41-40 24-27 55-56 9-13 27-29 4-6 Won 1
CRP 91 71 .562 40-41 51-30 23-26 68-45 9-15 21-18 4-6 Won 2
MAR 80 82 .494 38-43 42-39 22-18 58-64 11-13 24-27 7-3 Lost 1
MMM 88 74 .543 39-42 49-32 22-16 66-58 8- 9 28-23 5-5 Won 3
RAZ 77 85 .475 33-48 44-37 20-19 57-66 10- 4 27-19 7-3 Won 1
ROS 71 91 .438 37-44 34-47 19-25 52-66 14-10 25-23 6-4 Won 1
TEX 71 91 .438 33-48 38-43 17-16 54-75 7- 8 17-26 4-6 Won 1
VBO 91 71 .562 43-38 48-33 27-16 64-55 4-10 23-20 4-6 Lost 1
WAC 76 86 .469 40-41 36-45 20-20 56-66 9- 9 19-25 5-5 Lost 1
WES 97 65 .599 44-37 53-28 29-11 68-54 11- 7 19-19 6-4 Lost 1
TOTAL 972 972 .500
TEAM -APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT+ InDiv OutDiv
BEL 17-10 13-14 12-14 12-13 12-18 13-14 44-46 35-37
BRK 11-16 16-11 10-16 11-14 13-17 11-16 34-56 38-34
CAQ 16-11 16-11 13-13 9-16 11-19 14-13 42-48 37-35
CRP 14-13 14-13 15-11 18- 7 19-11 11-16 53-37 38-34
MAR 11-16 12-15 11-15 14-11 16-14 16-11 42-48 38-34
MMM 13-14 14-13 15-11 11-14 18-12 17-10 51-39 37-35
RAZ 14-13 10-17 9-17 12-13 18-12 14-13 43-47 34-38
ROS 7-20 9-18 16-10 12-13 11-19 16-11 40-50 31-41
TEX 14-13 13-14 14-12 11-14 11-19 8-19 42-48 29-43
VBO 14-13 17-10 17- 9 12-13 15-15 16-11 51-39 40-32
WAC 16-11 10-17 12-14 11-14 15-15 12-15 40-50 36-36
WES 15-12 18- 9 12-14 17- 8 21- 9 14-13 58-32 39-33
WINS ARE ACROSS, LOSSES ARE DOWN:
TEAM BEL BRK CAQ CRP MAR MMM RAZ ROS TEX VBO WAC WES
BEL - 7 11 9 8 7 5 9 5 4 8 6
BRK 5 - 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 5 6
CAQ 7 4 - 8 6 11 8 9 7 7 7 5
CRP 9 5 10 - 4 7 6 14 10 7 13 6
MAR 4 10 6 8 - 7 8 8 11 6 5 7
MMM 11 5 7 11 5 - 7 10 8 6 12 6
RAZ 7 12 4 6 10 5 - 5 5 11 7 5
ROS 9 6 9 4 4 8 7 - 6 3 10 5
TEX 7 11 5 2 7 4 13 6 - 7 5 4
VBO 8 11 5 5 12 6 7 9 11 - 7 10
WAC 10 7 11 5 7 6 5 8 7 5 - 5
WES 6 12 7 6 11 6 13 7 14 8 7 -Friday, March 30, 2007
The Draft
What I liked about my draft: I did most of what I wanted to do: picked up left-handed hitting, defense in the outfield, a good reserve catcher, and loads of relief pitching. In the minor league draft, I got Lincecum and one of the better-ranked shortstop prospects.
What I didn't like: I'd wanted to pick up a few prospects in the major-league draft, like Chris Iannetta, but waited too long. Now I'm left to depend on retreads, hoping that Andy Sisco rediscovers himself with the White Sox, which is like hoping that Britney Spears develops class. When my Over Their Head Gang crashes and burns this season, I'll return next season to losing 90 games. As for the minor league draft, even with the 10 picks I had, the bad decisions I've made over the past few years have left me with fewer true prospects than any other team in the league.
My breakout player this year (in real life): Chris Young. He better be; everybody has him as a major impact player. But three years ago, in another league, I drafted Jeremy Reed, another centerfielder with the same type of glowing reviews. And you know what happened to him.
What I didn't like: I'd wanted to pick up a few prospects in the major-league draft, like Chris Iannetta, but waited too long. Now I'm left to depend on retreads, hoping that Andy Sisco rediscovers himself with the White Sox, which is like hoping that Britney Spears develops class. When my Over Their Head Gang crashes and burns this season, I'll return next season to losing 90 games. As for the minor league draft, even with the 10 picks I had, the bad decisions I've made over the past few years have left me with fewer true prospects than any other team in the league.
My breakout player this year (in real life): Chris Young. He better be; everybody has him as a major impact player. But three years ago, in another league, I drafted Jeremy Reed, another centerfielder with the same type of glowing reviews. And you know what happened to him.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Outfielders
Phil,
You might want to talk to Texas. They've got 9 of them, with over 3300 primary at-bats. VBO has a bunch of them, too, but Art's going to be out for about a week.
Russ
You might want to talk to Texas. They've got 9 of them, with over 3300 primary at-bats. VBO has a bunch of them, too, but Art's going to be out for about a week.
Russ
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Creating a Computer Manager
I've started this post to share some tips on creating computer managers from things I've learned from others. If you've got some, please share them as well. (If you want to blame anyone for this, blame Stu. He's the one who asked me for some info on creating a CM).
The Basics. CM creation is done off the TEAM item on the menu bar. The first thing you'll want to do is Promote/Demote Minor Leaguers, to select which players to have on your 25-man roster each block. After that, you want to Update Default Lineups.
HAL will provide two basic lineups, one against lefties and one against righties. Unless you're going to play the same eight guys in the same slot every day, you'll want to add more. I usually copy the 1st lineup to the 3rd slot and the 2nd to the 4th, and use the 3rd and 4th slots for reverse lefties and reverse righties. (You can change the description for the lineup by writing it in the box next to "pre-set": for example, "Rev Left" or "L 9R-1R.")
Normally, HAL will create its own Reverse lineups in the 3rd and 4th spots. However, your human opponent has to insert the correct lineup in the game before playing it, and if you only have two lineups, one of those is the lineup that's going to be played; you won't get the benefit of the lineup HAL created to handle reverse pitching matchups.
Once that's done, everything else is handled under Update Computer Manager. Let's take it one step at a time.
Pitchers. At a minimum, you can set your starting rotation, your set-up men (left and right), and your closer. You can do a good bit more than that. First, you can set the characteristics of each pitcher. If you double-click on the pitcher's name in the blue box on the upper left, you'll get a pop-up box that allows you to check off a variety of options, which are pretty much self-explanatory. You don't have to consider each box for each pitcher, but "quick hook/slow hook" is something you want to consider for starters, and "avoid lefties/avoid righties" for certain relievers. ("Quick hook/slow hook" also works there; if you've got a left-handed specialist, check both "avoid righties" and "quick hook.") If you've got a good bullpen, you'll want to make sure to have your starters pulled as soon as they show fatigue (level falls below 9); a Chris Carpenter on a team with a bad bullpen might merit staying in the game if he falls to a 7 or even a 6.
Starter Schedule. You can create your own starting schedule, by moving pitchers into dates on the schedule. If you don't, your rotation will cycle through the five starters you selected under Pitchers. Setting up your own schedule is a bit more work, but it lets you take advantage of off-days and good or bad opposing team matchups.
Batters. In addition to setting up pinch-hitters, a pinch-runner, and defensive replacements, you can also set individual traits for hitters, the same way you did for pitchers: double-click on the hitter, and a pop-up box will appear, letting you check which ones you want. Again, they're self-explanatory, and you don't have to make a big deal out of each batter. If you've got a guy who should never bat against lefties, or who should never try to steal, this is the place to do it.
Manager Tendencies. This lets you make the general strategy choices of a manager: being conservative on the basepaths, in the use tactics like the intentional walk, etc.
Super HAL Baserunning. You can use this feature to be even more definitive: it allows you to define exactly what your CM will do in every base advance situation. If that's a bit much, you can only do it for certain situations, and allow the normal CM setting (aggressive, conservative, etc.) to take care of everything else. For example, setting Super HAL to 90% for going to third with none or two out makes virtually certain that you'll never get thrown out doing that. (See Super Hal Baserunning in the Help index.)
Super HAL Bullpen. This lets you set up detailed instructions for the use of your bullpen: the order in which relievers will be put into the game, making sure that your closer gets into every possible save situation, etc. You really need to read the Help index under Super Hal Bullpen to get a handle on everything you can do with this. The most daunting task there is setting up the "orders," that is, the possible situations that might arise in a game: a blowout, you leading or behind by one or two runs in the late innings, you ahead in the 9th by 3 runs or less, etc. A few years back, I found one that had been preset with most of those, and I simply downloaded it and have been using it since. If you want to download the same one, just click on Copy Super Hal Bullpen Logic under Team, copy it from the 2006 Westpark team to your 2007 team, then go in and arrange the pitchers you want to have appear in those situations.
Those are my tips. Anybody else got any?
The Basics. CM creation is done off the TEAM item on the menu bar. The first thing you'll want to do is Promote/Demote Minor Leaguers, to select which players to have on your 25-man roster each block. After that, you want to Update Default Lineups.
HAL will provide two basic lineups, one against lefties and one against righties. Unless you're going to play the same eight guys in the same slot every day, you'll want to add more. I usually copy the 1st lineup to the 3rd slot and the 2nd to the 4th, and use the 3rd and 4th slots for reverse lefties and reverse righties. (You can change the description for the lineup by writing it in the box next to "pre-set": for example, "Rev Left" or "L 9R-1R.")
Normally, HAL will create its own Reverse lineups in the 3rd and 4th spots. However, your human opponent has to insert the correct lineup in the game before playing it, and if you only have two lineups, one of those is the lineup that's going to be played; you won't get the benefit of the lineup HAL created to handle reverse pitching matchups.
Once that's done, everything else is handled under Update Computer Manager. Let's take it one step at a time.
Pitchers. At a minimum, you can set your starting rotation, your set-up men (left and right), and your closer. You can do a good bit more than that. First, you can set the characteristics of each pitcher. If you double-click on the pitcher's name in the blue box on the upper left, you'll get a pop-up box that allows you to check off a variety of options, which are pretty much self-explanatory. You don't have to consider each box for each pitcher, but "quick hook/slow hook" is something you want to consider for starters, and "avoid lefties/avoid righties" for certain relievers. ("Quick hook/slow hook" also works there; if you've got a left-handed specialist, check both "avoid righties" and "quick hook.") If you've got a good bullpen, you'll want to make sure to have your starters pulled as soon as they show fatigue (level falls below 9); a Chris Carpenter on a team with a bad bullpen might merit staying in the game if he falls to a 7 or even a 6.
Starter Schedule. You can create your own starting schedule, by moving pitchers into dates on the schedule. If you don't, your rotation will cycle through the five starters you selected under Pitchers. Setting up your own schedule is a bit more work, but it lets you take advantage of off-days and good or bad opposing team matchups.
Batters. In addition to setting up pinch-hitters, a pinch-runner, and defensive replacements, you can also set individual traits for hitters, the same way you did for pitchers: double-click on the hitter, and a pop-up box will appear, letting you check which ones you want. Again, they're self-explanatory, and you don't have to make a big deal out of each batter. If you've got a guy who should never bat against lefties, or who should never try to steal, this is the place to do it.
Manager Tendencies. This lets you make the general strategy choices of a manager: being conservative on the basepaths, in the use tactics like the intentional walk, etc.
Super HAL Baserunning. You can use this feature to be even more definitive: it allows you to define exactly what your CM will do in every base advance situation. If that's a bit much, you can only do it for certain situations, and allow the normal CM setting (aggressive, conservative, etc.) to take care of everything else. For example, setting Super HAL to 90% for going to third with none or two out makes virtually certain that you'll never get thrown out doing that. (See Super Hal Baserunning in the Help index.)
Super HAL Bullpen. This lets you set up detailed instructions for the use of your bullpen: the order in which relievers will be put into the game, making sure that your closer gets into every possible save situation, etc. You really need to read the Help index under Super Hal Bullpen to get a handle on everything you can do with this. The most daunting task there is setting up the "orders," that is, the possible situations that might arise in a game: a blowout, you leading or behind by one or two runs in the late innings, you ahead in the 9th by 3 runs or less, etc. A few years back, I found one that had been preset with most of those, and I simply downloaded it and have been using it since. If you want to download the same one, just click on Copy Super Hal Bullpen Logic under Team, copy it from the 2006 Westpark team to your 2007 team, then go in and arrange the pitchers you want to have appear in those situations.
Those are my tips. Anybody else got any?
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