Season Recap - Ruth Division

WES: Forecast: 103-59. Actual: 97-65. This team was loaded: Five players had 20 or more homers, five relievers had ERA's under 3.00, Schilling, Kazmir, and Vazquez combined for a 47-21 record and 3.29 ERA... Perhaps the best comment on the quality of the team (and conversely, on my managing skills) is that in the twelve replays, they finished with 100 or more wins eight times, and twice won more than 110. Factoid: Westpark was the only team that did not have a complete game all season. Outlook: The clock struck midnight for a lot of Westpark's overperformers, with Ross, Matthews, and Durham turning into pumpkins; Schilling showed his age; and other than Nathan the bullpen will have to be built back from scratch. Still, Renteria and Holliday stepped up their games, and with a solid lineup and fairly decent starting rotation, the Ripcats should be in the thick of it next year. Rookies: Tim Lincecum will step into a starting spot in the rotation, and Chris Young belted 32 homers, albeit with a sub-.240 average.

VBO: Forecast: 80-82. Actual: 91-71. What's more remarkable than the Oddsox exceeding their projection by 11 games is that they did it without anyone seriously overperforming. They were a smoothly functioning unit on offense: despite hitting fewer homers than all but two other teams (136 to Marriottsville's and Maui's 135), they put a lot of runners on base (2nd highest team OBP) and, more importantly, brought them around to score -- eighteen times they scored ten or more runs, more than any other teams except powerhouses Richmond and Westpark. And despite a relatively no-name pitching staff (Joe Borowski as closer?) and league-average defense, they allowed fewer runs than all but three other teams. Factoid: VBO and Richmond played the fewest extra-inning games, 14. VBO went 4-10; the Razz went 10-4. Outlook: Another solid team, and better in some respects next year, with Jimmy Rollins and Brad Hawpe improving even more. Some questions remain, like whether Bobby Abreu's .283/.369/.445 line in 2007 is worth over $15 million. Still, it'll be fun to see whether Brad Penny (only 9 HR's in 203 innings in Dodger Stadium this year) will give up any in cavernous Shea next year. Rookies: None who will have any appreciable impact.

MAR: Forecast: 81-81. Actual: 80-82. The average forecast is somewhat misleading in this case: the 12 replays produced a high of 94 wins and a low of 64 wins, the widest swing of any team in the league. The severe environment -- Marriottsville's park was the worst hitting park in the league, by a wide margin -- distorts any meaningful analysis of the Bones Demons' roster, but it doesn't appear that anyone seriously over- or under-performed his stats. This was basically a .500 team playing .500 ball. Still, considering that it lost 94 games the year before, that was a substantial step forward. Factoid: No one in Marriottsville's bullpen had more than 8 saves. The only teams to have their saves leaders finish with less than 20 were Conn River (Broxton, with 19) and Roswell (Gonzalez, with 16). Outlook: The Bones Demons need another good draft to get to the point of going deep in the playoffs: with the possible exception of Troy Tulowitski, they lack anything close to a real superstar on offense, and several players, like Scott Rolen, are in decline. Still, they've got a great one-two punch in the starting rotation (John Smoltz and Dan Haren), and the resurgence of Jose Valverde will solve a lot of the bullpen woes. Rookies: Other than Tulowitski, nothing much, but he should count for three. In another year, Andy LaRoche might come up to play the hot corner, teaming up with Adam at first base to allow Marriottsville to lead the league in LaRoches.

RAZ: Forecast: 61-101. Actual: 77-85. Perhaps an even better indication of the managing job done here is that in the 12 replays, only once did Richmond finish with as many as 70 wins. Half the time they finished with fewer than 60. So how do you get within five games of the playoffs with a team that allows opponents to hit .305 and has a league-worst .622 X-out %? Simple: you club the dickens out of the ball, leading the league in BA, OBP, SB, and runs, and finishing 2nd in SA. How did Paul Maholm finish with a 12-9 record, despite an ERA of 6.29? Because he led the league in run support: Richmond scored almost 7 runs a game in his starts. Factoid: The Razz led the league in grand slams, with 8. Conn River had the fewest; despite hitting the 4th-most homers in the league, only one came with the bases loaded. Outlook: Richmond has excelled at finding spare parts to fill in its core offense -- guys like Kenny Lofton, Matt Stairs, and Reggie Sanders. Assuming it does that and holds on to Barry Bonds for another year, that and Chipper Jones, plus Derek Lee's return, should offset Dan Uggla's sophomore slump and give the Razz plenty of offense again next year. The problem, though, is pitching. Paul Maholm is young, but posted a 5.00 ERA this year in Pittsburgh, one of the best pitcher's parks in the league. It's hard to see how that (from a lefty, no less) is going to translate well into Coors Field. Ditto for Chuck James, another lefty who gave up 1.8 HR/9 innings at Atlanta. Rookies: Micah Owings will be a huge help at starter.

BRK: Forecast: 76-86. Actual: 72-90. Pretty much of a lost year for the Cyclones. How does a team playing in a hitter's park, with eight guys hitting in double figures in home runs and four of them hitting over twenty, finish last in the league in runs scored? How does a team with Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, Jake Peavy, Trevor Hoffman, and the third-best defense in the league finish 8th in ERA? Sometimes things just don't work out, and they didn't for Brooklyn this year. Factoid: Probably the best indication of the Cyclones' woes is that they hit .156 with the bases loaded. Outlook: If there's going to be a team to match Westpark's rise from obscurity to the league championship in a single year, it's going to be next year's Brooklyn club. It's doubtful that any team can match the Cyclone's core on both sides of the ball, of Ramirez, Utley, and Helton on offense, and Webb et al. on the pitching side. This could be the team to beat next year. Rookies: Yunel Escobar gives Brooklyn an infield that hits better than .300 at every position.

TEX: Forecast: 81-81. Actual: 71-91. Another team undone by its pitching. Although league-average or better in most offensive stats, and in defense, the 4.72 ERA, 10th in the league ahead of only Roswell and Richmond, was a killer. Three of the top four starters put up ERA's of 4.98, 5.46, and 5.93. A lot of that was bad luck; those ERA's were anywhere from a half-run to two runs worse than what the pitchers did in real life. The bullpen wasn't much better, with a 4.25 ERA for the season; in fact, perhaps the best indication of the state of the bullpen was that that ERA includes Billy Wagner's 1.71. Factoid: Despite the presence of Chris Duncan, Luke Scott, and Prince Fielder, Texas got eaten up by right-handers: they went 17-16 (.515) and hit .284/.353/.495 against lefties, versus going 54-75 (.419) and hitting .256/.310/.422 against righties. Outlook: They're not going to have any problem on offense: despite Jason Bay's off year, Prince Fielder more than made up for it, and their rookies are going to have a major impact. Other than the draft and some trades -- Texas is deep in outfielders -- though, there's not much relief in sight for the pitching. Rookies: Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence are probably the two biggest impact rookies, and Texas has them both.