Ballpark Effects for 2007
Here's a rundown of the ballpark effects for your stadiums (stadia?) next year:
L-R SI L-R HR
BEL 13-7 16-16
BRK 8-11 14-11
CAQ 4-10 9-14
CRP 3-5 8-13
MAR 5-3 4-4
MMM 16-10 8-2
RAZ 18-18 8-15
ROS 1-1 4-7
TEX 9-9 5-9
VBO 7-4 7-7
WAC 11-11 17-17
WES 7-7 4-4
Friday, November 23, 2007
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Season Recap - Aaron Division
(Back in early March, after the draft, I did 12 auto replays of the season, and recorded the results. It’s an interesting comparison with how our teams actually did this year, so I’ll use that in the recaps, giving the average record forecast by the replays, and the actual record.)
CRP: Forecast: 87-75. Actual: 91-71. As solid as you get: 10 games over .500 in the first half, 10 over .500 in the 2nd half. 3rd in offense, 4th in ERA, 6th in defense. Millwood was the only 20-game winner in the league, and new addition Moises "Urine Good Hands" Alou clubbed the ball to the tune of .328/.388/.669. Factoid: CRP had the worst luck at the hit-and-run: it attempted the strategy only 22 times, the lowest in the league, managed to advance the base-runner only half that time, and got a whopping three hits. Outlook: Probably the best-managed team in the league, constantly replacing players in decline (in past years, Sosa, Javier Lopez) with youngsters like Jose Reyes, Jered Weaver, and Matt Cain. No accident that they've made the playoffs each of the past four years. They'll have some work to do on their rotation, though, with the 2007 seasons Vince Padilla and Kevin Millwood actually racked up. Top Rookies: Ubaldo Jiminez.
MMM: Forecast: 88-74. Actual: 88-74. Solid defense and pitcher's park allowed them to yield league-low 3.96 runs per game, but also put them in bottom half of offensive rankings. Jeff Francouer, converted to part-time duty, responded by hitting 73 points above his real-life average, and Fernando Nieve pitched in with a 10-2 record and sparkling 2.32 ERA in 18 starts. Factoid: Opponents hit only .218 against Maui in June. Outlook: AJ Burnett was hurt and got only 165 innings this year, and Doug Davis was marginally effective, so Maui has some work to do on their rotation, too. Still, I can think of worse players to build a team around than Ryan Howard, David Wright, Roy Oswalt, and Orlando Cabrera. Top Rookies: None.
CAQ: Forecast: 84-78. Actual: 79-83. After winning the most games and the league championship in 2006, the Quakes missed the playoffs. The reason isn't hard to figure: after scoring the 2nd-most runs in the league in 2006, Castaic tumbled all the way to 9th this year. Most of that decline can be traced to one player, Andruw Jones: in 2006, he hit .302 and knocked in 163 runs for the Quakes, while this year he hit .242 with only 117 RBI's, and 14 fewer homers. With the season he actually had in 2007, Castaic's going to have a big hole to fill. Factoid: Poor bullpen work also cost the Quakes: they saved only 64% of their chances, worst in the league. On the positive side, this is the easiest thing to remedy in the draft: Westpark went from having the second-worst percentage in 2006 (61%) to the best (81%) this year. Outook: They have some major work to do in the off-season. Jason Schmidt and Jones formed the core of the team, and Schmidt's season made Jones look like an All-Star. Still, they've got Cole Hamels and Ryan Zimmerman to build around. Rookies: No help there, at least for next year; highly touted prospects Felix Pie and Homer Bailey fizzled in their major league debuts.
BEL: Forecast: 82-80. Actual: 79-83. From the stats, it looks like this club should've finished a lot worse: lowest batting average in the league at .246, no speed (39 SB's; only Marriottsville had fewer), 7th in pitching, 10th in fielding... But the Dodgers did finish 3rd in HR's and 6th in runs scored, so their offense was better than it might appear. In fact, with a bit more luck the Dodgers would have made the playoffs: there was no one who outperformed their real life stats, and several who seriously underperformed them. Factoid: Whatever chance Bell Heights had of making the playoffs vanished in September, when they went 13-14 despite a sparkling 3.57 ERA. Reason? A team batting average of .219. Chief culprit: Lance Berkman, with a .205 BA, 2 homers and 3 RBI. Outlook: Some good selections in the draft should put Bell Heights in the playoff picture. They have a solid core on both sides, with a rotation of Francis, Verlander, and Maddux, the emergence of Takashi Saito as a lights-out closer, plus a power trio of Guerrero, Berkman, and Khalil Greene. Rookies: Yovani Gallardo is an emerging force. Carlos Marmol, while not a rookie, had a standout season and will add real depth to the Dodgers' bullpen.
WAC: Forecast: 84-78. Actual: 76-86. Pitching cost them a playoff spot. Despite hitting only .256 as a team, they scored the 5th-most runs in the league, mostly on the strength of a league-leading 233 homers, with nine players finishing in double figures. But they finished 9th in pitching, giving up 42 more runs than they scored. Chris Carpenter was their best pitcher, with a 3.16 ERA, good for 2nd place, but finished only 12-10 because of a paltry 3.91 run support. The bullpen was a disaster, finishing with a 4.91 ERA; only Richmond, at 4.96, was worse. Factoid: Another late-season fade: 12-15 in September, with a .219 BA, led (?) by another unlikely candidate, Albert Pujols, with a .227 BA, 3 HR's, and 7 RBI. Outlook: Rotation is a shambles, with Carpenter injured this season, and the implosion of Dontrelle Willis and Chris Capuano; that's slightly offset by the huge improvement of Josh Beckett, but the Cheesewedgers are going to have to scramble for starting pitching. Emergence of Manny Corpas this year should settle down the bullpen. Rookies: Some good news there. Alex Gordon may give West Allis room to move Adrian Beltre. The flyer that the Cheesewedgers took on Josh Hamilton paid off, and a bevy of hot pitching prospects -- Andrew Miller, Phillip Humber, and Franklin Morales -- indicate that West Allis should only be a year away from contention again.
ROS: Forecast: 65-97. Actual: 71-91. Sometimes stats lie, but here they don't: The Aliens finished 11th in runs scored and ERA. They got shut out a league-leading ten times, and opposing teams knicked them for ten or more runs in a game twenty times; only Richmond was worse in that latter category. Nobody of any consequence overperformed, and several players fell substantially below their real-life stats. Factoid: Actually, the Aliens were killed by three teams. Against the rest of the league, they finished .500, but they were 3-9 against Virginia Beach, 4-8 against Marriottsville, and a ghastly 4-14 against Conn River. Outlook: Good news and bad news. Mike Lowell and Adam Dunn had substantially better years in 2007, and both underperformed for the Aliens this year. Brad Lidge got back to some semblance of normalcy, and isn't likely to give up a homer every four innings, as he did for the Aliens. On the other hand, Rafael Furcal's deterioration is a serious problem: it's questionable whether you want to spend $13 million on a hitter with a .688 OPS. The roster's pretty thin after that. With a good draft and a bit of luck, the Aliens should be able to contend two years from now, but it's hard to see them making a run at it next year. Rookies: Tom Gorzelanny is a major addition, and Daric Barton could turn into a big plus in another year.
(Back in early March, after the draft, I did 12 auto replays of the season, and recorded the results. It’s an interesting comparison with how our teams actually did this year, so I’ll use that in the recaps, giving the average record forecast by the replays, and the actual record.)
CRP: Forecast: 87-75. Actual: 91-71. As solid as you get: 10 games over .500 in the first half, 10 over .500 in the 2nd half. 3rd in offense, 4th in ERA, 6th in defense. Millwood was the only 20-game winner in the league, and new addition Moises "Urine Good Hands" Alou clubbed the ball to the tune of .328/.388/.669. Factoid: CRP had the worst luck at the hit-and-run: it attempted the strategy only 22 times, the lowest in the league, managed to advance the base-runner only half that time, and got a whopping three hits. Outlook: Probably the best-managed team in the league, constantly replacing players in decline (in past years, Sosa, Javier Lopez) with youngsters like Jose Reyes, Jered Weaver, and Matt Cain. No accident that they've made the playoffs each of the past four years. They'll have some work to do on their rotation, though, with the 2007 seasons Vince Padilla and Kevin Millwood actually racked up. Top Rookies: Ubaldo Jiminez.
MMM: Forecast: 88-74. Actual: 88-74. Solid defense and pitcher's park allowed them to yield league-low 3.96 runs per game, but also put them in bottom half of offensive rankings. Jeff Francouer, converted to part-time duty, responded by hitting 73 points above his real-life average, and Fernando Nieve pitched in with a 10-2 record and sparkling 2.32 ERA in 18 starts. Factoid: Opponents hit only .218 against Maui in June. Outlook: AJ Burnett was hurt and got only 165 innings this year, and Doug Davis was marginally effective, so Maui has some work to do on their rotation, too. Still, I can think of worse players to build a team around than Ryan Howard, David Wright, Roy Oswalt, and Orlando Cabrera. Top Rookies: None.
CAQ: Forecast: 84-78. Actual: 79-83. After winning the most games and the league championship in 2006, the Quakes missed the playoffs. The reason isn't hard to figure: after scoring the 2nd-most runs in the league in 2006, Castaic tumbled all the way to 9th this year. Most of that decline can be traced to one player, Andruw Jones: in 2006, he hit .302 and knocked in 163 runs for the Quakes, while this year he hit .242 with only 117 RBI's, and 14 fewer homers. With the season he actually had in 2007, Castaic's going to have a big hole to fill. Factoid: Poor bullpen work also cost the Quakes: they saved only 64% of their chances, worst in the league. On the positive side, this is the easiest thing to remedy in the draft: Westpark went from having the second-worst percentage in 2006 (61%) to the best (81%) this year. Outook: They have some major work to do in the off-season. Jason Schmidt and Jones formed the core of the team, and Schmidt's season made Jones look like an All-Star. Still, they've got Cole Hamels and Ryan Zimmerman to build around. Rookies: No help there, at least for next year; highly touted prospects Felix Pie and Homer Bailey fizzled in their major league debuts.
BEL: Forecast: 82-80. Actual: 79-83. From the stats, it looks like this club should've finished a lot worse: lowest batting average in the league at .246, no speed (39 SB's; only Marriottsville had fewer), 7th in pitching, 10th in fielding... But the Dodgers did finish 3rd in HR's and 6th in runs scored, so their offense was better than it might appear. In fact, with a bit more luck the Dodgers would have made the playoffs: there was no one who outperformed their real life stats, and several who seriously underperformed them. Factoid: Whatever chance Bell Heights had of making the playoffs vanished in September, when they went 13-14 despite a sparkling 3.57 ERA. Reason? A team batting average of .219. Chief culprit: Lance Berkman, with a .205 BA, 2 homers and 3 RBI. Outlook: Some good selections in the draft should put Bell Heights in the playoff picture. They have a solid core on both sides, with a rotation of Francis, Verlander, and Maddux, the emergence of Takashi Saito as a lights-out closer, plus a power trio of Guerrero, Berkman, and Khalil Greene. Rookies: Yovani Gallardo is an emerging force. Carlos Marmol, while not a rookie, had a standout season and will add real depth to the Dodgers' bullpen.
WAC: Forecast: 84-78. Actual: 76-86. Pitching cost them a playoff spot. Despite hitting only .256 as a team, they scored the 5th-most runs in the league, mostly on the strength of a league-leading 233 homers, with nine players finishing in double figures. But they finished 9th in pitching, giving up 42 more runs than they scored. Chris Carpenter was their best pitcher, with a 3.16 ERA, good for 2nd place, but finished only 12-10 because of a paltry 3.91 run support. The bullpen was a disaster, finishing with a 4.91 ERA; only Richmond, at 4.96, was worse. Factoid: Another late-season fade: 12-15 in September, with a .219 BA, led (?) by another unlikely candidate, Albert Pujols, with a .227 BA, 3 HR's, and 7 RBI. Outlook: Rotation is a shambles, with Carpenter injured this season, and the implosion of Dontrelle Willis and Chris Capuano; that's slightly offset by the huge improvement of Josh Beckett, but the Cheesewedgers are going to have to scramble for starting pitching. Emergence of Manny Corpas this year should settle down the bullpen. Rookies: Some good news there. Alex Gordon may give West Allis room to move Adrian Beltre. The flyer that the Cheesewedgers took on Josh Hamilton paid off, and a bevy of hot pitching prospects -- Andrew Miller, Phillip Humber, and Franklin Morales -- indicate that West Allis should only be a year away from contention again.
ROS: Forecast: 65-97. Actual: 71-91. Sometimes stats lie, but here they don't: The Aliens finished 11th in runs scored and ERA. They got shut out a league-leading ten times, and opposing teams knicked them for ten or more runs in a game twenty times; only Richmond was worse in that latter category. Nobody of any consequence overperformed, and several players fell substantially below their real-life stats. Factoid: Actually, the Aliens were killed by three teams. Against the rest of the league, they finished .500, but they were 3-9 against Virginia Beach, 4-8 against Marriottsville, and a ghastly 4-14 against Conn River. Outlook: Good news and bad news. Mike Lowell and Adam Dunn had substantially better years in 2007, and both underperformed for the Aliens this year. Brad Lidge got back to some semblance of normalcy, and isn't likely to give up a homer every four innings, as he did for the Aliens. On the other hand, Rafael Furcal's deterioration is a serious problem: it's questionable whether you want to spend $13 million on a hitter with a .688 OPS. The roster's pretty thin after that. With a good draft and a bit of luck, the Aliens should be able to contend two years from now, but it's hard to see them making a run at it next year. Rookies: Tom Gorzelanny is a major addition, and Daric Barton could turn into a big plus in another year.
Season Recap - Ruth Division
WES: Forecast: 103-59. Actual: 97-65. This team was loaded: Five players had 20 or more homers, five relievers had ERA's under 3.00, Schilling, Kazmir, and Vazquez combined for a 47-21 record and 3.29 ERA... Perhaps the best comment on the quality of the team (and conversely, on my managing skills) is that in the twelve replays, they finished with 100 or more wins eight times, and twice won more than 110. Factoid: Westpark was the only team that did not have a complete game all season. Outlook: The clock struck midnight for a lot of Westpark's overperformers, with Ross, Matthews, and Durham turning into pumpkins; Schilling showed his age; and other than Nathan the bullpen will have to be built back from scratch. Still, Renteria and Holliday stepped up their games, and with a solid lineup and fairly decent starting rotation, the Ripcats should be in the thick of it next year. Rookies: Tim Lincecum will step into a starting spot in the rotation, and Chris Young belted 32 homers, albeit with a sub-.240 average.
VBO: Forecast: 80-82. Actual: 91-71. What's more remarkable than the Oddsox exceeding their projection by 11 games is that they did it without anyone seriously overperforming. They were a smoothly functioning unit on offense: despite hitting fewer homers than all but two other teams (136 to Marriottsville's and Maui's 135), they put a lot of runners on base (2nd highest team OBP) and, more importantly, brought them around to score -- eighteen times they scored ten or more runs, more than any other teams except powerhouses Richmond and Westpark. And despite a relatively no-name pitching staff (Joe Borowski as closer?) and league-average defense, they allowed fewer runs than all but three other teams. Factoid: VBO and Richmond played the fewest extra-inning games, 14. VBO went 4-10; the Razz went 10-4. Outlook: Another solid team, and better in some respects next year, with Jimmy Rollins and Brad Hawpe improving even more. Some questions remain, like whether Bobby Abreu's .283/.369/.445 line in 2007 is worth over $15 million. Still, it'll be fun to see whether Brad Penny (only 9 HR's in 203 innings in Dodger Stadium this year) will give up any in cavernous Shea next year. Rookies: None who will have any appreciable impact.
MAR: Forecast: 81-81. Actual: 80-82. The average forecast is somewhat misleading in this case: the 12 replays produced a high of 94 wins and a low of 64 wins, the widest swing of any team in the league. The severe environment -- Marriottsville's park was the worst hitting park in the league, by a wide margin -- distorts any meaningful analysis of the Bones Demons' roster, but it doesn't appear that anyone seriously over- or under-performed his stats. This was basically a .500 team playing .500 ball. Still, considering that it lost 94 games the year before, that was a substantial step forward. Factoid: No one in Marriottsville's bullpen had more than 8 saves. The only teams to have their saves leaders finish with less than 20 were Conn River (Broxton, with 19) and Roswell (Gonzalez, with 16). Outlook: The Bones Demons need another good draft to get to the point of going deep in the playoffs: with the possible exception of Troy Tulowitski, they lack anything close to a real superstar on offense, and several players, like Scott Rolen, are in decline. Still, they've got a great one-two punch in the starting rotation (John Smoltz and Dan Haren), and the resurgence of Jose Valverde will solve a lot of the bullpen woes. Rookies: Other than Tulowitski, nothing much, but he should count for three. In another year, Andy LaRoche might come up to play the hot corner, teaming up with Adam at first base to allow Marriottsville to lead the league in LaRoches.
RAZ: Forecast: 61-101. Actual: 77-85. Perhaps an even better indication of the managing job done here is that in the 12 replays, only once did Richmond finish with as many as 70 wins. Half the time they finished with fewer than 60. So how do you get within five games of the playoffs with a team that allows opponents to hit .305 and has a league-worst .622 X-out %? Simple: you club the dickens out of the ball, leading the league in BA, OBP, SB, and runs, and finishing 2nd in SA. How did Paul Maholm finish with a 12-9 record, despite an ERA of 6.29? Because he led the league in run support: Richmond scored almost 7 runs a game in his starts. Factoid: The Razz led the league in grand slams, with 8. Conn River had the fewest; despite hitting the 4th-most homers in the league, only one came with the bases loaded. Outlook: Richmond has excelled at finding spare parts to fill in its core offense -- guys like Kenny Lofton, Matt Stairs, and Reggie Sanders. Assuming it does that and holds on to Barry Bonds for another year, that and Chipper Jones, plus Derek Lee's return, should offset Dan Uggla's sophomore slump and give the Razz plenty of offense again next year. The problem, though, is pitching. Paul Maholm is young, but posted a 5.00 ERA this year in Pittsburgh, one of the best pitcher's parks in the league. It's hard to see how that (from a lefty, no less) is going to translate well into Coors Field. Ditto for Chuck James, another lefty who gave up 1.8 HR/9 innings at Atlanta. Rookies: Micah Owings will be a huge help at starter.
BRK: Forecast: 76-86. Actual: 72-90. Pretty much of a lost year for the Cyclones. How does a team playing in a hitter's park, with eight guys hitting in double figures in home runs and four of them hitting over twenty, finish last in the league in runs scored? How does a team with Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, Jake Peavy, Trevor Hoffman, and the third-best defense in the league finish 8th in ERA? Sometimes things just don't work out, and they didn't for Brooklyn this year. Factoid: Probably the best indication of the Cyclones' woes is that they hit .156 with the bases loaded. Outlook: If there's going to be a team to match Westpark's rise from obscurity to the league championship in a single year, it's going to be next year's Brooklyn club. It's doubtful that any team can match the Cyclone's core on both sides of the ball, of Ramirez, Utley, and Helton on offense, and Webb et al. on the pitching side. This could be the team to beat next year. Rookies: Yunel Escobar gives Brooklyn an infield that hits better than .300 at every position.
TEX: Forecast: 81-81. Actual: 71-91. Another team undone by its pitching. Although league-average or better in most offensive stats, and in defense, the 4.72 ERA, 10th in the league ahead of only Roswell and Richmond, was a killer. Three of the top four starters put up ERA's of 4.98, 5.46, and 5.93. A lot of that was bad luck; those ERA's were anywhere from a half-run to two runs worse than what the pitchers did in real life. The bullpen wasn't much better, with a 4.25 ERA for the season; in fact, perhaps the best indication of the state of the bullpen was that that ERA includes Billy Wagner's 1.71. Factoid: Despite the presence of Chris Duncan, Luke Scott, and Prince Fielder, Texas got eaten up by right-handers: they went 17-16 (.515) and hit .284/.353/.495 against lefties, versus going 54-75 (.419) and hitting .256/.310/.422 against righties. Outlook: They're not going to have any problem on offense: despite Jason Bay's off year, Prince Fielder more than made up for it, and their rookies are going to have a major impact. Other than the draft and some trades -- Texas is deep in outfielders -- though, there's not much relief in sight for the pitching. Rookies: Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence are probably the two biggest impact rookies, and Texas has them both.
WES: Forecast: 103-59. Actual: 97-65. This team was loaded: Five players had 20 or more homers, five relievers had ERA's under 3.00, Schilling, Kazmir, and Vazquez combined for a 47-21 record and 3.29 ERA... Perhaps the best comment on the quality of the team (and conversely, on my managing skills) is that in the twelve replays, they finished with 100 or more wins eight times, and twice won more than 110. Factoid: Westpark was the only team that did not have a complete game all season. Outlook: The clock struck midnight for a lot of Westpark's overperformers, with Ross, Matthews, and Durham turning into pumpkins; Schilling showed his age; and other than Nathan the bullpen will have to be built back from scratch. Still, Renteria and Holliday stepped up their games, and with a solid lineup and fairly decent starting rotation, the Ripcats should be in the thick of it next year. Rookies: Tim Lincecum will step into a starting spot in the rotation, and Chris Young belted 32 homers, albeit with a sub-.240 average.
VBO: Forecast: 80-82. Actual: 91-71. What's more remarkable than the Oddsox exceeding their projection by 11 games is that they did it without anyone seriously overperforming. They were a smoothly functioning unit on offense: despite hitting fewer homers than all but two other teams (136 to Marriottsville's and Maui's 135), they put a lot of runners on base (2nd highest team OBP) and, more importantly, brought them around to score -- eighteen times they scored ten or more runs, more than any other teams except powerhouses Richmond and Westpark. And despite a relatively no-name pitching staff (Joe Borowski as closer?) and league-average defense, they allowed fewer runs than all but three other teams. Factoid: VBO and Richmond played the fewest extra-inning games, 14. VBO went 4-10; the Razz went 10-4. Outlook: Another solid team, and better in some respects next year, with Jimmy Rollins and Brad Hawpe improving even more. Some questions remain, like whether Bobby Abreu's .283/.369/.445 line in 2007 is worth over $15 million. Still, it'll be fun to see whether Brad Penny (only 9 HR's in 203 innings in Dodger Stadium this year) will give up any in cavernous Shea next year. Rookies: None who will have any appreciable impact.
MAR: Forecast: 81-81. Actual: 80-82. The average forecast is somewhat misleading in this case: the 12 replays produced a high of 94 wins and a low of 64 wins, the widest swing of any team in the league. The severe environment -- Marriottsville's park was the worst hitting park in the league, by a wide margin -- distorts any meaningful analysis of the Bones Demons' roster, but it doesn't appear that anyone seriously over- or under-performed his stats. This was basically a .500 team playing .500 ball. Still, considering that it lost 94 games the year before, that was a substantial step forward. Factoid: No one in Marriottsville's bullpen had more than 8 saves. The only teams to have their saves leaders finish with less than 20 were Conn River (Broxton, with 19) and Roswell (Gonzalez, with 16). Outlook: The Bones Demons need another good draft to get to the point of going deep in the playoffs: with the possible exception of Troy Tulowitski, they lack anything close to a real superstar on offense, and several players, like Scott Rolen, are in decline. Still, they've got a great one-two punch in the starting rotation (John Smoltz and Dan Haren), and the resurgence of Jose Valverde will solve a lot of the bullpen woes. Rookies: Other than Tulowitski, nothing much, but he should count for three. In another year, Andy LaRoche might come up to play the hot corner, teaming up with Adam at first base to allow Marriottsville to lead the league in LaRoches.
RAZ: Forecast: 61-101. Actual: 77-85. Perhaps an even better indication of the managing job done here is that in the 12 replays, only once did Richmond finish with as many as 70 wins. Half the time they finished with fewer than 60. So how do you get within five games of the playoffs with a team that allows opponents to hit .305 and has a league-worst .622 X-out %? Simple: you club the dickens out of the ball, leading the league in BA, OBP, SB, and runs, and finishing 2nd in SA. How did Paul Maholm finish with a 12-9 record, despite an ERA of 6.29? Because he led the league in run support: Richmond scored almost 7 runs a game in his starts. Factoid: The Razz led the league in grand slams, with 8. Conn River had the fewest; despite hitting the 4th-most homers in the league, only one came with the bases loaded. Outlook: Richmond has excelled at finding spare parts to fill in its core offense -- guys like Kenny Lofton, Matt Stairs, and Reggie Sanders. Assuming it does that and holds on to Barry Bonds for another year, that and Chipper Jones, plus Derek Lee's return, should offset Dan Uggla's sophomore slump and give the Razz plenty of offense again next year. The problem, though, is pitching. Paul Maholm is young, but posted a 5.00 ERA this year in Pittsburgh, one of the best pitcher's parks in the league. It's hard to see how that (from a lefty, no less) is going to translate well into Coors Field. Ditto for Chuck James, another lefty who gave up 1.8 HR/9 innings at Atlanta. Rookies: Micah Owings will be a huge help at starter.
BRK: Forecast: 76-86. Actual: 72-90. Pretty much of a lost year for the Cyclones. How does a team playing in a hitter's park, with eight guys hitting in double figures in home runs and four of them hitting over twenty, finish last in the league in runs scored? How does a team with Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, Jake Peavy, Trevor Hoffman, and the third-best defense in the league finish 8th in ERA? Sometimes things just don't work out, and they didn't for Brooklyn this year. Factoid: Probably the best indication of the Cyclones' woes is that they hit .156 with the bases loaded. Outlook: If there's going to be a team to match Westpark's rise from obscurity to the league championship in a single year, it's going to be next year's Brooklyn club. It's doubtful that any team can match the Cyclone's core on both sides of the ball, of Ramirez, Utley, and Helton on offense, and Webb et al. on the pitching side. This could be the team to beat next year. Rookies: Yunel Escobar gives Brooklyn an infield that hits better than .300 at every position.
TEX: Forecast: 81-81. Actual: 71-91. Another team undone by its pitching. Although league-average or better in most offensive stats, and in defense, the 4.72 ERA, 10th in the league ahead of only Roswell and Richmond, was a killer. Three of the top four starters put up ERA's of 4.98, 5.46, and 5.93. A lot of that was bad luck; those ERA's were anywhere from a half-run to two runs worse than what the pitchers did in real life. The bullpen wasn't much better, with a 4.25 ERA for the season; in fact, perhaps the best indication of the state of the bullpen was that that ERA includes Billy Wagner's 1.71. Factoid: Despite the presence of Chris Duncan, Luke Scott, and Prince Fielder, Texas got eaten up by right-handers: they went 17-16 (.515) and hit .284/.353/.495 against lefties, versus going 54-75 (.419) and hitting .256/.310/.422 against righties. Outlook: They're not going to have any problem on offense: despite Jason Bay's off year, Prince Fielder more than made up for it, and their rookies are going to have a major impact. Other than the draft and some trades -- Texas is deep in outfielders -- though, there's not much relief in sight for the pitching. Rookies: Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence are probably the two biggest impact rookies, and Texas has them both.
League Playoffs
They say timing is everything, and it couldn't have been truer for the Westpark Ripcats, who won the league world series this year by sweeping the Virginia Beach Oddsox, giving the Liberty League its fourth different champion in its four years of existence.
Only four teams made the playoffs, with one series in the first round matching up Virginia Beach and the Conn River Patriots, both with 91-71 season record. The Oddsox prevailed in six games, despite being outhit (.251/.340/.382 to .271/.356/.469) and outpitched (4.42 ERA to 3.50). They weren't outfielded, though; they committed only one error, while the Patriots committed seven. Those seven errors led to five unearned runs, and unearned runs were the difference in three of Virginia Beach's four victories.
The other series matched up Westpark's league-leading 97-65 record against Maui's 88-74. Westpark had figured to be an offensive powerhouse this season, since virtually everyone on their roster, including several of the players picked up in the latter rounds of the draft last year -- like Gary Matthews, Jr., David Ross, and Mark Derosa -- had turned in career years. That didn't turn out to be the case, though, with almost everybody in the lineup except Jim Thome underperforming: Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Matthews finished with an OPS about 150 points lower than in real life.
And that held up during the first round of the playoffs, when the Ripcats found themselves on the short end of a 3-2 edge, having batted a miserable .238 with only 18 runs scored in those five games. From that point on, though -- the remaining two games of the series with Maui, and the four games with the Oddsox -- Westpark clubbed the ball at a .342/.385/.445 clip, averaging over seven runs a game.
The playoffs proved two things. First, anything can happen in a short series. Had the Patriots been a little more careful tossing the ball around, they very well may have been the team that advanced to the league championship series. The 7th game between Maui and Westpark went 11 innings, and Maui had the winning run in scoring position in the 8th, 9th, and 10th innings, but couldn't push it across. And Virginia Beach, even though it got swept, was arguably the victim simply of one team getting very hot while the other team got very cold. It had actually had a season's edge in contests with Westpark, winning 10 of the 18 games between the two.
The other thing the playoffs proved is that the league structure of allowing teams to retain only a limited number of players each year substantially increases competitive balance. Westpark and Marriottsville (then Dublin) had the two worst records in the league in 2006; this year, Westpark won the championship and Marriottsville fell just two games short of making the playoffs.
So we'll see who wins next year. Odds are it won't be the Ripcats.
They say timing is everything, and it couldn't have been truer for the Westpark Ripcats, who won the league world series this year by sweeping the Virginia Beach Oddsox, giving the Liberty League its fourth different champion in its four years of existence.
Only four teams made the playoffs, with one series in the first round matching up Virginia Beach and the Conn River Patriots, both with 91-71 season record. The Oddsox prevailed in six games, despite being outhit (.251/.340/.382 to .271/.356/.469) and outpitched (4.42 ERA to 3.50). They weren't outfielded, though; they committed only one error, while the Patriots committed seven. Those seven errors led to five unearned runs, and unearned runs were the difference in three of Virginia Beach's four victories.
The other series matched up Westpark's league-leading 97-65 record against Maui's 88-74. Westpark had figured to be an offensive powerhouse this season, since virtually everyone on their roster, including several of the players picked up in the latter rounds of the draft last year -- like Gary Matthews, Jr., David Ross, and Mark Derosa -- had turned in career years. That didn't turn out to be the case, though, with almost everybody in the lineup except Jim Thome underperforming: Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Matthews finished with an OPS about 150 points lower than in real life.
And that held up during the first round of the playoffs, when the Ripcats found themselves on the short end of a 3-2 edge, having batted a miserable .238 with only 18 runs scored in those five games. From that point on, though -- the remaining two games of the series with Maui, and the four games with the Oddsox -- Westpark clubbed the ball at a .342/.385/.445 clip, averaging over seven runs a game.
The playoffs proved two things. First, anything can happen in a short series. Had the Patriots been a little more careful tossing the ball around, they very well may have been the team that advanced to the league championship series. The 7th game between Maui and Westpark went 11 innings, and Maui had the winning run in scoring position in the 8th, 9th, and 10th innings, but couldn't push it across. And Virginia Beach, even though it got swept, was arguably the victim simply of one team getting very hot while the other team got very cold. It had actually had a season's edge in contests with Westpark, winning 10 of the 18 games between the two.
The other thing the playoffs proved is that the league structure of allowing teams to retain only a limited number of players each year substantially increases competitive balance. Westpark and Marriottsville (then Dublin) had the two worst records in the league in 2006; this year, Westpark won the championship and Marriottsville fell just two games short of making the playoffs.
So we'll see who wins next year. Odds are it won't be the Ripcats.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Playoffs - Round 1 - WES and VBO advance to World Series
LEAGUE GRAND TOTALS (primary report) FOR 2007 Liberty Leag Playoff
TEAM AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS E
2007 ConnRiver .271 207 28 56 16 2 7 26 5 0 7
2007 Maui .267 243 27 65 11 1 4 27 2 1 4
2007 VirginiaBeach .251 207 26 52 11 2 4 20 4 2 1
2007 Westpark .243 239 33 58 16 0 7 32 1 1 3
-------------------- ---- ----- ---- ----- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
LEAGUE TOTALS .258 896 114 231 54 5 22 105 12 4 15
TEAM ERA W L IP H R ER HR BB SO OAVG
2007 ConnRiver 3.50 2 4 54.0 52 26 21 4 28 32 .251
2007 Westpark 3.77 4 3 62.0 65 27 26 4 14 49 .267
2007 Maui 4.22 3 4 64.0 58 33 30 7 27 56 .243
2007 VirginiaBeach 4.42 4 2 55.0 56 28 27 7 26 39 .271
-------------------- ----- --- --- ------- ----- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----
LEAGUE TOTALS 3.98 13 13 235.0 231 114 104 22 95 176 .258Strat-O-Matic Report
LEAGUE GRAND TOTALS (secondary report) FOR 2007 Liberty Leag Playoff
TEAM OB% SLUG PROD GAM BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GIDP TB HRHM HRRD
2007 CRP .356 .469 .824 6 26 3 39 3 2 3 11 97 2 5
2007 MMM .318 .370 .688 7 14 0 49 4 2 0 3 90 3 1
2007 VBO .340 .382 .722 6 28 1 32 0 3 0 6 79 3 1
2007 WES .322 .397 .720 7 27 2 56 2 2 2 7 95 1 6
-------- ---- ---- ----- --- ---- --- ----- --- ---- --- ---- ----- --- ---
TOTALS .333 .403 .736 13 95 6 176 9 9 5 27 361 9 13
TEAM CG SHO SAV BFP IBB BK WP PB IRSC% X-TOT X-OUT X-PCT
2007 ConnRiver 0 1 1 238 1 0 3 0 .235 37 28 .757
2007 Maui 0 0 3 272 2 0 2 0 .235 27 19 .704
2007 VirginiaBeach 0 0 4 241 3 0 0 2 .250 30 23 .767
2007 Westpark 0 0 2 263 0 0 2 0 .091 41 28 .683
-------------------- --- --- --- ------ --- --- --- --- ----- ----- ----- -----
LEAGUE TOTALS 0 1 10 1014 6 0 7 2 .197 135 98 .726Saturday, October 20, 2007
PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Only four teams qualified for the playoffs this year, the lowest number in our four-year history. A few months ago, Baseball Prospectus did a study of previous championship teams and determined that the the most common attributes were (1) power pitchers (high K totals) (2) a dominant closer, and (3) a good defense. With that in mind, let's take a look at the survivors.
WESTPARK
(1) Power pitchers. A strikout rate of 7.5 or more per 9 innings is generally regarded as indicative of a strong power pitcher. Kazmir (10.6), Vazquez (9.1), and Schilling (8.6) easily meet this. What's more, unlike many power pitchers, they feature good to excellent control, especially Schilling (1.5 BB/9) and Vazquez (2.2). Grade: A.
(2) Closer. Say no more. Joe Nathan led the league in saves with 42 (in 46 opportunities), and had a 1.31 ERA and a ridiculous WHIP of .66. Grade: A+
(3) Defense. More than an Achilles heel: the defense would have to go up several levels merely to be labeled "porous." They had the 2nd-lowest X-out %, and when they did manage to get to a ball, the result often wasn't any better: they had the 2nd-most errors in the league, leading to 75 unearned runs, a performance which was exceeded only by Richmond with 84. Grade: F.
CONN RIVER
(1) Power Pitching: Although only Cain and Weaver finished above the 7.5 cutoff, Padilla and Millwood were relatively close (6.8 and 6.6, respectively). And they have a lot of flamethrowers in the bullpen, enough so that as a team they finished 2nd in strikeouts. Grade: A-.
(2) Closer. A problem. Jonathon Broxton had the highest closer rating, with a 2, and did save 19 games, with a 1.80 ERA. But he blew 6 saves, and overall the bullpen converted 68% of their save chances, good only for sixth place. Grade: C+
(3) Defense. Because of platoon splits, defense is slightly worse against lefties than righties. Finished slightly below average in errors, slightly above in X-out %. Grade: C+.
MAUI
(1) Power Pitching: Nothing special; only Burnett exceeds the 7.5 threshold, and that barely (7.6). Finished in the middle of the pack in strikeouts overall. Grade: C.
(2) Closer: Another team with no true closer. Farnsworth saved 20 out of 25, with a 2.80 ERA, but that could be a fluke; his real-life ERA was 4.36, and he gave up over 2 hits per nine innings there than he did for the Maulers. Overall, the team converted only 64% of its save chances. The bullpen did have a 2.90 ERA, good for 2nd in the league behind Westpark's 2.70. Grade: C.
(3) Defense: Strong up the middle (9), and decent on the corners (12), although LoDuca has a relatively weak arm at catcher. Fourth in errors, but 1st in X-out %. Grade: A.
VIRGINIA BEACH
(1) Power Pitching: Ben Sheets (11.2 K/9) and Brad Penny (8.0) can bring it, the others, not so much. That includes the bullpen; overall, the team finished 11th in the league in strikeouts. Grade: C-.
(2) Closer: Joe Borowski didn't have great peripheral stats, but he did save 28 games in 31 chances. Overall, the bullpen was decent, saving 72% of their chances and compiling a 3.55 ERA, about middle of the pack. Grade: B
(3) Defense: Not particularly good up the middle (12), and bad on the corners (15). Barrett's got a very weak arm at catcher. Despite that, they finished better than league average in errors, and about league average in X-out %. Grade: C.
SUMMARY: This is a toss-up; all four teams have strengths and flaws. On paper, Westpark would look to have the best chance, with a powerful lineup, three top-notch starters, and a lights-out closer, but they lack a dominant starter like a Sanchez or Weaver, and it's easy to see their defense costing them a game or two, death in a short series. Conn River's hitting and pitching is strong, and their defense is adequate, but you have to wonder if the lack of a true closer is going to hurt them. Maui isn't going to make any mistakes on defense, and they've got sluggers like Ryan Howard and David Wright, but the lineup's thin after that: they finished near the league bottom in home runs and runs scored. VBO lacks the long-ball punch -- only one player hit 20 or more home runs -- but they led the league in batting average, and their ability to score runs is demonstrated by the fact that Bobby Abreu led the league in that category.
Only four teams qualified for the playoffs this year, the lowest number in our four-year history. A few months ago, Baseball Prospectus did a study of previous championship teams and determined that the the most common attributes were (1) power pitchers (high K totals) (2) a dominant closer, and (3) a good defense. With that in mind, let's take a look at the survivors.
WESTPARK
(1) Power pitchers. A strikout rate of 7.5 or more per 9 innings is generally regarded as indicative of a strong power pitcher. Kazmir (10.6), Vazquez (9.1), and Schilling (8.6) easily meet this. What's more, unlike many power pitchers, they feature good to excellent control, especially Schilling (1.5 BB/9) and Vazquez (2.2). Grade: A.
(2) Closer. Say no more. Joe Nathan led the league in saves with 42 (in 46 opportunities), and had a 1.31 ERA and a ridiculous WHIP of .66. Grade: A+
(3) Defense. More than an Achilles heel: the defense would have to go up several levels merely to be labeled "porous." They had the 2nd-lowest X-out %, and when they did manage to get to a ball, the result often wasn't any better: they had the 2nd-most errors in the league, leading to 75 unearned runs, a performance which was exceeded only by Richmond with 84. Grade: F.
CONN RIVER
(1) Power Pitching: Although only Cain and Weaver finished above the 7.5 cutoff, Padilla and Millwood were relatively close (6.8 and 6.6, respectively). And they have a lot of flamethrowers in the bullpen, enough so that as a team they finished 2nd in strikeouts. Grade: A-.
(2) Closer. A problem. Jonathon Broxton had the highest closer rating, with a 2, and did save 19 games, with a 1.80 ERA. But he blew 6 saves, and overall the bullpen converted 68% of their save chances, good only for sixth place. Grade: C+
(3) Defense. Because of platoon splits, defense is slightly worse against lefties than righties. Finished slightly below average in errors, slightly above in X-out %. Grade: C+.
MAUI
(1) Power Pitching: Nothing special; only Burnett exceeds the 7.5 threshold, and that barely (7.6). Finished in the middle of the pack in strikeouts overall. Grade: C.
(2) Closer: Another team with no true closer. Farnsworth saved 20 out of 25, with a 2.80 ERA, but that could be a fluke; his real-life ERA was 4.36, and he gave up over 2 hits per nine innings there than he did for the Maulers. Overall, the team converted only 64% of its save chances. The bullpen did have a 2.90 ERA, good for 2nd in the league behind Westpark's 2.70. Grade: C.
(3) Defense: Strong up the middle (9), and decent on the corners (12), although LoDuca has a relatively weak arm at catcher. Fourth in errors, but 1st in X-out %. Grade: A.
VIRGINIA BEACH
(1) Power Pitching: Ben Sheets (11.2 K/9) and Brad Penny (8.0) can bring it, the others, not so much. That includes the bullpen; overall, the team finished 11th in the league in strikeouts. Grade: C-.
(2) Closer: Joe Borowski didn't have great peripheral stats, but he did save 28 games in 31 chances. Overall, the bullpen was decent, saving 72% of their chances and compiling a 3.55 ERA, about middle of the pack. Grade: B
(3) Defense: Not particularly good up the middle (12), and bad on the corners (15). Barrett's got a very weak arm at catcher. Despite that, they finished better than league average in errors, and about league average in X-out %. Grade: C.
SUMMARY: This is a toss-up; all four teams have strengths and flaws. On paper, Westpark would look to have the best chance, with a powerful lineup, three top-notch starters, and a lights-out closer, but they lack a dominant starter like a Sanchez or Weaver, and it's easy to see their defense costing them a game or two, death in a short series. Conn River's hitting and pitching is strong, and their defense is adequate, but you have to wonder if the lack of a true closer is going to hurt them. Maui isn't going to make any mistakes on defense, and they've got sluggers like Ryan Howard and David Wright, but the lineup's thin after that: they finished near the league bottom in home runs and runs scored. VBO lacks the long-ball punch -- only one player hit 20 or more home runs -- but they led the league in batting average, and their ability to score runs is demonstrated by the fact that Bobby Abreu led the league in that category.
Strat-O-Matic Report - Team Batting and Pitching
LEAGUE GRAND TOTALS (primary report) FOR 2007 Liberty League
TEAM AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS E
2007 Richmond .276 5682 908 1567 321 64 182 855 173 53 144
2007 VirginiaBeach .275 5585 812 1538 353 41 136 771 116 49 100
2007 Maui .271 5674 721 1538 325 34 135 689 99 33 97
2007 Westpark .267 5706 887 1521 361 27 223 851 48 7 117
2007 ConnRiver .263 5707 822 1501 354 43 190 784 90 26 105
2007 Castaic .262 5707 719 1493 305 32 164 692 131 24 89
2007 Texas .262 5673 748 1484 333 51 185 709 47 24 110
2007 WestAllis .253 5626 762 1426 314 30 233 735 65 31 112
2007 Brooklyn .251 5571 677 1396 313 38 186 639 93 33 91
2007 Roswell .250 5601 710 1403 282 45 144 660 161 31 102
2007 Marriottsville .248 5646 681 1400 329 44 135 654 25 12 86
2007 Bell Heights .246 5598 727 1376 306 16 191 688 39 21 103
-------------------- ---- ----- ---- ----- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
LEAGUE TOTALS .260 67776 9174 17643 3896 465 2104 8727 1087 344 1256
TEAM ERA W L IP H R ER HR BB SO OAVG
2007 Maui 3.59 88 74 1477.2 1346 641 590 137 568 1147 .245
2007 Westpark 3.67 97 65 1489.0 1457 682 607 143 433 1201 .255
2007 Marriottsville 3.81 80 82 1495.0 1364 677 633 153 491 1136 .244
2007 ConnRiver 3.84 91 71 1503.2 1339 702 641 167 601 1214 .238
2007 Castaic 3.86 79 83 1491.0 1300 706 640 209 645 1290 .235
2007 VirginiaBeach 3.95 91 71 1462.1 1438 712 642 170 504 978 .257
2007 Bell Heights 4.22 79 83 1480.0 1456 744 694 173 464 1141 .259
2007 Brooklyn 4.45 72 90 1460.2 1428 786 723 164 560 1251 .256
2007 WestAllis 4.59 76 86 1475.0 1501 804 752 203 531 1124 .263
2007 Texas 4.72 71 91 1453.0 1606 842 762 169 500 1012 .282
2007 Roswell 4.90 71 91 1468.1 1592 873 800 196 587 957 .279
2007 Richmond 5.64 77 85 1470.0 1816 1005 921 220 582 1025 .306
-------------------- ----- --- --- ------- ----- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----
LEAGUE TOTALS 4.27 972 972 17725.2 17643 9174 8405 2104 6466 13476 .260Strat-O-Matic Report - Final Standings
LEAGUE STANDINGS FOR 2007 Liberty League
Aaron WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2007 ConnRiver CRP 91 71 .562 ---- *WON*
2007 Maui MMM 88 74 .543 3.0
2007 Castaic CAQ 79 83 .488 12.0
2007 Bell Heights BEL 79 83 .488 12.0
2007 WestAllis WAC 76 86 .469 15.0
2007 Roswell ROS 71 91 .438 20.0
Ruth WON LOST PCT GB MAGIC#
2007 Westpark WES 97 65 .599 ---- *WON*
2007 VirginiaBeach VBO 91 71 .562 6.0
2007 Marriottsville MAR 80 82 .494 17.0
2007 Richmond RAZ 77 85 .475 20.0
2007 Brooklyn BRK 72 90 .444 25.0
2007 Texas TEX 71 91 .438 26.0
OVERALL RECORD
Team WON LOST PCT HOME ROAD LEFT RIGHT EXTRA 1-RUN LAST 10 STREAK
BEL 79 83 .488 36-45 43-38 26-14 53-69 12- 6 24-26 6-4 Lost 1
BRK 72 90 .444 40-41 32-49 18-25 54-65 10-10 24-23 4-6 Lost 4
CAQ 79 83 .488 38-43 41-40 24-27 55-56 9-13 27-29 4-6 Won 1
CRP 91 71 .562 40-41 51-30 23-26 68-45 9-15 21-18 4-6 Won 2
MAR 80 82 .494 38-43 42-39 22-18 58-64 11-13 24-27 7-3 Lost 1
MMM 88 74 .543 39-42 49-32 22-16 66-58 8- 9 28-23 5-5 Won 3
RAZ 77 85 .475 33-48 44-37 20-19 57-66 10- 4 27-19 7-3 Won 1
ROS 71 91 .438 37-44 34-47 19-25 52-66 14-10 25-23 6-4 Won 1
TEX 71 91 .438 33-48 38-43 17-16 54-75 7- 8 17-26 4-6 Won 1
VBO 91 71 .562 43-38 48-33 27-16 64-55 4-10 23-20 4-6 Lost 1
WAC 76 86 .469 40-41 36-45 20-20 56-66 9- 9 19-25 5-5 Lost 1
WES 97 65 .599 44-37 53-28 29-11 68-54 11- 7 19-19 6-4 Lost 1
TOTAL 972 972 .500
TEAM -APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT+ InDiv OutDiv
BEL 17-10 13-14 12-14 12-13 12-18 13-14 44-46 35-37
BRK 11-16 16-11 10-16 11-14 13-17 11-16 34-56 38-34
CAQ 16-11 16-11 13-13 9-16 11-19 14-13 42-48 37-35
CRP 14-13 14-13 15-11 18- 7 19-11 11-16 53-37 38-34
MAR 11-16 12-15 11-15 14-11 16-14 16-11 42-48 38-34
MMM 13-14 14-13 15-11 11-14 18-12 17-10 51-39 37-35
RAZ 14-13 10-17 9-17 12-13 18-12 14-13 43-47 34-38
ROS 7-20 9-18 16-10 12-13 11-19 16-11 40-50 31-41
TEX 14-13 13-14 14-12 11-14 11-19 8-19 42-48 29-43
VBO 14-13 17-10 17- 9 12-13 15-15 16-11 51-39 40-32
WAC 16-11 10-17 12-14 11-14 15-15 12-15 40-50 36-36
WES 15-12 18- 9 12-14 17- 8 21- 9 14-13 58-32 39-33
WINS ARE ACROSS, LOSSES ARE DOWN:
TEAM BEL BRK CAQ CRP MAR MMM RAZ ROS TEX VBO WAC WES
BEL - 7 11 9 8 7 5 9 5 4 8 6
BRK 5 - 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 5 6
CAQ 7 4 - 8 6 11 8 9 7 7 7 5
CRP 9 5 10 - 4 7 6 14 10 7 13 6
MAR 4 10 6 8 - 7 8 8 11 6 5 7
MMM 11 5 7 11 5 - 7 10 8 6 12 6
RAZ 7 12 4 6 10 5 - 5 5 11 7 5
ROS 9 6 9 4 4 8 7 - 6 3 10 5
TEX 7 11 5 2 7 4 13 6 - 7 5 4
VBO 8 11 5 5 12 6 7 9 11 - 7 10
WAC 10 7 11 5 7 6 5 8 7 5 - 5
WES 6 12 7 6 11 6 13 7 14 8 7 -Friday, March 30, 2007
The Draft
What I liked about my draft: I did most of what I wanted to do: picked up left-handed hitting, defense in the outfield, a good reserve catcher, and loads of relief pitching. In the minor league draft, I got Lincecum and one of the better-ranked shortstop prospects.
What I didn't like: I'd wanted to pick up a few prospects in the major-league draft, like Chris Iannetta, but waited too long. Now I'm left to depend on retreads, hoping that Andy Sisco rediscovers himself with the White Sox, which is like hoping that Britney Spears develops class. When my Over Their Head Gang crashes and burns this season, I'll return next season to losing 90 games. As for the minor league draft, even with the 10 picks I had, the bad decisions I've made over the past few years have left me with fewer true prospects than any other team in the league.
My breakout player this year (in real life): Chris Young. He better be; everybody has him as a major impact player. But three years ago, in another league, I drafted Jeremy Reed, another centerfielder with the same type of glowing reviews. And you know what happened to him.
What I didn't like: I'd wanted to pick up a few prospects in the major-league draft, like Chris Iannetta, but waited too long. Now I'm left to depend on retreads, hoping that Andy Sisco rediscovers himself with the White Sox, which is like hoping that Britney Spears develops class. When my Over Their Head Gang crashes and burns this season, I'll return next season to losing 90 games. As for the minor league draft, even with the 10 picks I had, the bad decisions I've made over the past few years have left me with fewer true prospects than any other team in the league.
My breakout player this year (in real life): Chris Young. He better be; everybody has him as a major impact player. But three years ago, in another league, I drafted Jeremy Reed, another centerfielder with the same type of glowing reviews. And you know what happened to him.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Outfielders
Phil,
You might want to talk to Texas. They've got 9 of them, with over 3300 primary at-bats. VBO has a bunch of them, too, but Art's going to be out for about a week.
Russ
You might want to talk to Texas. They've got 9 of them, with over 3300 primary at-bats. VBO has a bunch of them, too, but Art's going to be out for about a week.
Russ
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Creating a Computer Manager
I've started this post to share some tips on creating computer managers from things I've learned from others. If you've got some, please share them as well. (If you want to blame anyone for this, blame Stu. He's the one who asked me for some info on creating a CM).
The Basics. CM creation is done off the TEAM item on the menu bar. The first thing you'll want to do is Promote/Demote Minor Leaguers, to select which players to have on your 25-man roster each block. After that, you want to Update Default Lineups.
HAL will provide two basic lineups, one against lefties and one against righties. Unless you're going to play the same eight guys in the same slot every day, you'll want to add more. I usually copy the 1st lineup to the 3rd slot and the 2nd to the 4th, and use the 3rd and 4th slots for reverse lefties and reverse righties. (You can change the description for the lineup by writing it in the box next to "pre-set": for example, "Rev Left" or "L 9R-1R.")
Normally, HAL will create its own Reverse lineups in the 3rd and 4th spots. However, your human opponent has to insert the correct lineup in the game before playing it, and if you only have two lineups, one of those is the lineup that's going to be played; you won't get the benefit of the lineup HAL created to handle reverse pitching matchups.
Once that's done, everything else is handled under Update Computer Manager. Let's take it one step at a time.
Pitchers. At a minimum, you can set your starting rotation, your set-up men (left and right), and your closer. You can do a good bit more than that. First, you can set the characteristics of each pitcher. If you double-click on the pitcher's name in the blue box on the upper left, you'll get a pop-up box that allows you to check off a variety of options, which are pretty much self-explanatory. You don't have to consider each box for each pitcher, but "quick hook/slow hook" is something you want to consider for starters, and "avoid lefties/avoid righties" for certain relievers. ("Quick hook/slow hook" also works there; if you've got a left-handed specialist, check both "avoid righties" and "quick hook.") If you've got a good bullpen, you'll want to make sure to have your starters pulled as soon as they show fatigue (level falls below 9); a Chris Carpenter on a team with a bad bullpen might merit staying in the game if he falls to a 7 or even a 6.
Starter Schedule. You can create your own starting schedule, by moving pitchers into dates on the schedule. If you don't, your rotation will cycle through the five starters you selected under Pitchers. Setting up your own schedule is a bit more work, but it lets you take advantage of off-days and good or bad opposing team matchups.
Batters. In addition to setting up pinch-hitters, a pinch-runner, and defensive replacements, you can also set individual traits for hitters, the same way you did for pitchers: double-click on the hitter, and a pop-up box will appear, letting you check which ones you want. Again, they're self-explanatory, and you don't have to make a big deal out of each batter. If you've got a guy who should never bat against lefties, or who should never try to steal, this is the place to do it.
Manager Tendencies. This lets you make the general strategy choices of a manager: being conservative on the basepaths, in the use tactics like the intentional walk, etc.
Super HAL Baserunning. You can use this feature to be even more definitive: it allows you to define exactly what your CM will do in every base advance situation. If that's a bit much, you can only do it for certain situations, and allow the normal CM setting (aggressive, conservative, etc.) to take care of everything else. For example, setting Super HAL to 90% for going to third with none or two out makes virtually certain that you'll never get thrown out doing that. (See Super Hal Baserunning in the Help index.)
Super HAL Bullpen. This lets you set up detailed instructions for the use of your bullpen: the order in which relievers will be put into the game, making sure that your closer gets into every possible save situation, etc. You really need to read the Help index under Super Hal Bullpen to get a handle on everything you can do with this. The most daunting task there is setting up the "orders," that is, the possible situations that might arise in a game: a blowout, you leading or behind by one or two runs in the late innings, you ahead in the 9th by 3 runs or less, etc. A few years back, I found one that had been preset with most of those, and I simply downloaded it and have been using it since. If you want to download the same one, just click on Copy Super Hal Bullpen Logic under Team, copy it from the 2006 Westpark team to your 2007 team, then go in and arrange the pitchers you want to have appear in those situations.
Those are my tips. Anybody else got any?
The Basics. CM creation is done off the TEAM item on the menu bar. The first thing you'll want to do is Promote/Demote Minor Leaguers, to select which players to have on your 25-man roster each block. After that, you want to Update Default Lineups.
HAL will provide two basic lineups, one against lefties and one against righties. Unless you're going to play the same eight guys in the same slot every day, you'll want to add more. I usually copy the 1st lineup to the 3rd slot and the 2nd to the 4th, and use the 3rd and 4th slots for reverse lefties and reverse righties. (You can change the description for the lineup by writing it in the box next to "pre-set": for example, "Rev Left" or "L 9R-1R.")
Normally, HAL will create its own Reverse lineups in the 3rd and 4th spots. However, your human opponent has to insert the correct lineup in the game before playing it, and if you only have two lineups, one of those is the lineup that's going to be played; you won't get the benefit of the lineup HAL created to handle reverse pitching matchups.
Once that's done, everything else is handled under Update Computer Manager. Let's take it one step at a time.
Pitchers. At a minimum, you can set your starting rotation, your set-up men (left and right), and your closer. You can do a good bit more than that. First, you can set the characteristics of each pitcher. If you double-click on the pitcher's name in the blue box on the upper left, you'll get a pop-up box that allows you to check off a variety of options, which are pretty much self-explanatory. You don't have to consider each box for each pitcher, but "quick hook/slow hook" is something you want to consider for starters, and "avoid lefties/avoid righties" for certain relievers. ("Quick hook/slow hook" also works there; if you've got a left-handed specialist, check both "avoid righties" and "quick hook.") If you've got a good bullpen, you'll want to make sure to have your starters pulled as soon as they show fatigue (level falls below 9); a Chris Carpenter on a team with a bad bullpen might merit staying in the game if he falls to a 7 or even a 6.
Starter Schedule. You can create your own starting schedule, by moving pitchers into dates on the schedule. If you don't, your rotation will cycle through the five starters you selected under Pitchers. Setting up your own schedule is a bit more work, but it lets you take advantage of off-days and good or bad opposing team matchups.
Batters. In addition to setting up pinch-hitters, a pinch-runner, and defensive replacements, you can also set individual traits for hitters, the same way you did for pitchers: double-click on the hitter, and a pop-up box will appear, letting you check which ones you want. Again, they're self-explanatory, and you don't have to make a big deal out of each batter. If you've got a guy who should never bat against lefties, or who should never try to steal, this is the place to do it.
Manager Tendencies. This lets you make the general strategy choices of a manager: being conservative on the basepaths, in the use tactics like the intentional walk, etc.
Super HAL Baserunning. You can use this feature to be even more definitive: it allows you to define exactly what your CM will do in every base advance situation. If that's a bit much, you can only do it for certain situations, and allow the normal CM setting (aggressive, conservative, etc.) to take care of everything else. For example, setting Super HAL to 90% for going to third with none or two out makes virtually certain that you'll never get thrown out doing that. (See Super Hal Baserunning in the Help index.)
Super HAL Bullpen. This lets you set up detailed instructions for the use of your bullpen: the order in which relievers will be put into the game, making sure that your closer gets into every possible save situation, etc. You really need to read the Help index under Super Hal Bullpen to get a handle on everything you can do with this. The most daunting task there is setting up the "orders," that is, the possible situations that might arise in a game: a blowout, you leading or behind by one or two runs in the late innings, you ahead in the 9th by 3 runs or less, etc. A few years back, I found one that had been preset with most of those, and I simply downloaded it and have been using it since. If you want to download the same one, just click on Copy Super Hal Bullpen Logic under Team, copy it from the 2006 Westpark team to your 2007 team, then go in and arrange the pitchers you want to have appear in those situations.
Those are my tips. Anybody else got any?
Friday, March 23, 2007
Lefties
It's well-accepted wisdom that left-handed starters perform worse in Strat leagues than they do in real life, especially in small and medium leagues. (Ours would be regarded as medium; although it's only 12 teams, we limit ourselves to the player pool of the 16 teams in the NL.) Is it true?
To find out, I took a look at the stats, specifically how teams did against left-handed and right-handed starters. (One of the stats on the first page of the Team Stats display.) That gave some support for the notion; only one team finished with a substantially worse record against lefties than righties. (Two others finished at .500 against LH's, and 2 games above that for RH's). That team was Castaic, which finished 71-56 versus RH's (.559), but only 15-20 (.429) against LH's. That might just be due to luck, though: the team hit and slugged almost identically versus both (.268 BA, .454 SA against lefties, .268 BA, .460 SA against righties).
Averaging it out, over the course of a full season teams would have wound up winning about 7 more games if they'd faced all left-handed starters than if they'd faced all right-handed starters. Excluding Castaic, it was a difference of almost 10 games.
Then I checked left-handed starters. That wasn't as difficult as it sounds; turns out that there were only 10 lefties in our league who pitched more than 150 innings. Of those 10, exactly half gave up at least a hit per inning more than they did in real life, and two others saw their H/9 rise by at least .5. Only one had an H/9 at least .5 less than in real life. That wasn't because the lefties were all on bad teams, either. West Allis went 86-76, but their two top starters, Dontrelle Willis and Chris Capuano, didn't perform nearly as well as their stats indicated they should. Capuano, for example, was 20-13 with a 3.99 ERA for Milwaukee in 2005; for the Cheesewedgers, he managed only 8-10 and a 4.83.
Which makes me feel so, so much better for having cut him instead of Al Leiter two years ago...
Then again, it may be that starters just don't do as well in Strat leagues, regardless of which arm they use. I went back and checked the teams that had those left-handed starters, and their rightie counterparts didn't fare any better: of the 7 RH's, 4 had H/9's over a hit higher, and 1 had an H/9 half a hit higher. Roy Oswalt of the Maulers, for example, went 22-13 with a 2.94 ERA and 9.0 H/9 for Houston in 2005; for Maui, those stats were 15-12, 4.36, and 11.2.One thing I did note, though: while no LH starter substantially overperformed, several RH's did. Matt Clement and Brad Penny, for example, both shaved over a run off their real-life ERA's. Clement's H/9 was 9.0 for Boston, 7.4 for Roswell.
Bottom line: my guess is left-handed starters aren't the disaster some claim them to be, but the chances of them performing worse than they did in real life is much greater than that they'll perform better. You'll get more even performance out of right-handers.
To find out, I took a look at the stats, specifically how teams did against left-handed and right-handed starters. (One of the stats on the first page of the Team Stats display.) That gave some support for the notion; only one team finished with a substantially worse record against lefties than righties. (Two others finished at .500 against LH's, and 2 games above that for RH's). That team was Castaic, which finished 71-56 versus RH's (.559), but only 15-20 (.429) against LH's. That might just be due to luck, though: the team hit and slugged almost identically versus both (.268 BA, .454 SA against lefties, .268 BA, .460 SA against righties).
Averaging it out, over the course of a full season teams would have wound up winning about 7 more games if they'd faced all left-handed starters than if they'd faced all right-handed starters. Excluding Castaic, it was a difference of almost 10 games.
Then I checked left-handed starters. That wasn't as difficult as it sounds; turns out that there were only 10 lefties in our league who pitched more than 150 innings. Of those 10, exactly half gave up at least a hit per inning more than they did in real life, and two others saw their H/9 rise by at least .5. Only one had an H/9 at least .5 less than in real life. That wasn't because the lefties were all on bad teams, either. West Allis went 86-76, but their two top starters, Dontrelle Willis and Chris Capuano, didn't perform nearly as well as their stats indicated they should. Capuano, for example, was 20-13 with a 3.99 ERA for Milwaukee in 2005; for the Cheesewedgers, he managed only 8-10 and a 4.83.
Which makes me feel so, so much better for having cut him instead of Al Leiter two years ago...
Then again, it may be that starters just don't do as well in Strat leagues, regardless of which arm they use. I went back and checked the teams that had those left-handed starters, and their rightie counterparts didn't fare any better: of the 7 RH's, 4 had H/9's over a hit higher, and 1 had an H/9 half a hit higher. Roy Oswalt of the Maulers, for example, went 22-13 with a 2.94 ERA and 9.0 H/9 for Houston in 2005; for Maui, those stats were 15-12, 4.36, and 11.2.One thing I did note, though: while no LH starter substantially overperformed, several RH's did. Matt Clement and Brad Penny, for example, both shaved over a run off their real-life ERA's. Clement's H/9 was 9.0 for Boston, 7.4 for Roswell.
Bottom line: my guess is left-handed starters aren't the disaster some claim them to be, but the chances of them performing worse than they did in real life is much greater than that they'll perform better. You'll get more even performance out of right-handers.
Dee-Fense!!!
It's accepted wisdom in baseball that you need good defense up the middle to win championships, and the corresponding theory of Strat is that means you need at least 2's, 3's at worst, at SS, 2B, and CF. Is it true? Just how important is defense?
I had an interesting take on it while playing Castaic in the recent playoff series with Conn River, sitting in for Steve Maljan while he's recuperating from surgery. It didn't really hit me until I looked out on the field at my defense in about the third game, and realized that I had at least a 2 at every position except catcher, where Rod Barajas was a 3 (but with a -1 arm), and 1st base, where Lyle Overbay was a 3. Plus, I had 1's in centerfield (Andruw Jones) and shorstop (Jack Wilson). Considering that my Westpark team usually sported a lineup containing no fewer than five 4's, this was a welcome change of pace.
And then it dawned on me. One of the great advantages Strat has over baseball is in the evaluation of defense. In real baseball, despite the addition of metrics like range factors and zone ratings, measuring defense still remains highly subjective. Not so in Strat: while fans can debate who's the better fielder in real life, Rafael Furcal or Jack Wilson, in the Strat game, Wilson's a 1 and Furcal is a 2, and that settles that.
What's really great is that you can also measure exactly the effect of the defense, because the game keeps track of that. If you look at the "2nd Grand Totals" in the League Stats page, you'll find the totals for X-chances, X-outs, and X-percentage. The X-chances, of course, are the times in the games where you get that "ss(X)" dice roll, and the result of the play is determined by that defender's range and error rating. That happened a little over 5 times a game per team during the season.
For the league, that play turned into an out 72% of the time, on average. Some teams were worse, like Appleton and Westpark at 66%. One team, though was way above the league average: Steve Maljan's Quakes, at 82%. What did that mean in real numbers, though? Castaic had 794 X-chances during the season, converting 651 of them into outs. Had its defense performed at the league average, it would have converted only 572 of those chances into outs. In short, Castaic converted about 79 fielding chances into outs that would have been hits or errors with a league-average defense.
That's not a lot; it works out to less than one every two games. It's not going to be spaced like that, and a hit instead of an out at the wrong time can be disastrous in the context of a single game, especially considering that that hit could be a two-base error, a double, or even a triple. On the other hand, there are a lot of times when it won't mean anything. Assuming that 2.3 of the "unconverted" chances equal one run (which is generous), that's about 34 runs over the course of a season, or about 3 wins. That doesn't mean you should feel comfortable about playing 4's at 2B and SS. But Jack Wilson's glove isn't going to be enough to make up for Rafael Furcal's bat.
And in a short series, you're not sure if defense is going to show up. In the 6-game playoff series with Conn River, Castaic converted only 66% of their X-chances; the Patriots converted 86%, but still won only 2 games. I don't know how many hits Andruw Jones prevented with his glove, but I doubt it was equal to the 6 home runs and 11 RBI he hit.
I had an interesting take on it while playing Castaic in the recent playoff series with Conn River, sitting in for Steve Maljan while he's recuperating from surgery. It didn't really hit me until I looked out on the field at my defense in about the third game, and realized that I had at least a 2 at every position except catcher, where Rod Barajas was a 3 (but with a -1 arm), and 1st base, where Lyle Overbay was a 3. Plus, I had 1's in centerfield (Andruw Jones) and shorstop (Jack Wilson). Considering that my Westpark team usually sported a lineup containing no fewer than five 4's, this was a welcome change of pace.
And then it dawned on me. One of the great advantages Strat has over baseball is in the evaluation of defense. In real baseball, despite the addition of metrics like range factors and zone ratings, measuring defense still remains highly subjective. Not so in Strat: while fans can debate who's the better fielder in real life, Rafael Furcal or Jack Wilson, in the Strat game, Wilson's a 1 and Furcal is a 2, and that settles that.
What's really great is that you can also measure exactly the effect of the defense, because the game keeps track of that. If you look at the "2nd Grand Totals" in the League Stats page, you'll find the totals for X-chances, X-outs, and X-percentage. The X-chances, of course, are the times in the games where you get that "ss(X)" dice roll, and the result of the play is determined by that defender's range and error rating. That happened a little over 5 times a game per team during the season.
For the league, that play turned into an out 72% of the time, on average. Some teams were worse, like Appleton and Westpark at 66%. One team, though was way above the league average: Steve Maljan's Quakes, at 82%. What did that mean in real numbers, though? Castaic had 794 X-chances during the season, converting 651 of them into outs. Had its defense performed at the league average, it would have converted only 572 of those chances into outs. In short, Castaic converted about 79 fielding chances into outs that would have been hits or errors with a league-average defense.
That's not a lot; it works out to less than one every two games. It's not going to be spaced like that, and a hit instead of an out at the wrong time can be disastrous in the context of a single game, especially considering that that hit could be a two-base error, a double, or even a triple. On the other hand, there are a lot of times when it won't mean anything. Assuming that 2.3 of the "unconverted" chances equal one run (which is generous), that's about 34 runs over the course of a season, or about 3 wins. That doesn't mean you should feel comfortable about playing 4's at 2B and SS. But Jack Wilson's glove isn't going to be enough to make up for Rafael Furcal's bat.
And in a short series, you're not sure if defense is going to show up. In the 6-game playoff series with Conn River, Castaic converted only 66% of their X-chances; the Patriots converted 86%, but still won only 2 games. I don't know how many hits Andruw Jones prevented with his glove, but I doubt it was equal to the 6 home runs and 11 RBI he hit.
Castaic wins 2006 Liberty League Championship
Game 1: Jake Peavy has dazzled for the Cyclones in the playoffs up to this point, but the Quakes have no problem solving him, pounding him for six runs in six innings. Andruw Jones, fresh off of winning the MVP for the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, throws his hat into the ring for the same honor in the Championship, driving in two runs with a double in the first inning, and clubbing a two-run homer in the fifth. Meanwhile, Brett Myers cruises, giving up just one run and four hits in eight innings, while striking out 10. The only Brooklyn run comes on Cliff Floyd’s homer in the fourth, and Castaic wins 8-1.
Game 2: The Cyclones get off to a good start on Ty Wigginton’s two-run round-tripper in the first, but the Quakes tie it up in the bottom of the inning. By the 4th, Brooklyn’s clinging to a 3-2 lead, but some aggressive base-running blows the game open. With two out and Alex Gonzalez on first, Carlos Zambrano hits a single to right. The third base coach, quickly calculating that Gonzalez has no more than a 55% chance of advancing the extra base, puts up the stop sign, but Gonzalez blows right through it, just barely beating the throw as Zambrano takes second. Juan Pierre hits a 17-hopper up the middle, and winds up on second as Zambrano lumbers to the plate, beating the throw again. Wigginton lines one to left to cap the three-run inning, which finishes off the scoring for the game, as Brooklyn evens the series with a 6-2 win.
Game 3: The first two games weren’t close, and as the teams move to Brooklyn, neither is this one. Zach Duke, in a surprise start for Brooklyn, holds up fairly well, but can’t get out of the 6th, and Castaic pummels three Brooklyn relievers for six runs in a 9-4 victory.
Game 4: Peavy gets pounded again, giving up five runs in the first two innings. He settles down after that, but it’s too late: Myers turns in another masterful game, pitching a 1-hit shutout as Castaic takes a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 6-0 win.
Game 5: Seeking to force the series back to Castaic, the Cyclones send Zambrano to the mound, but Jones solves him for a three-run homer in the first, and the game enters the eighth inning with Castaic holding a comfortable 5-1 lead, just six outs from a world championship. Once more, though, Brooklyn’s daring on the basepaths pays off. With one out, Wigginton’s double and Chase Utley’s triple, followed by a wild pitch, bring the Cyclones to within two. Aramis Ramirez works a walk, and after Cliff Floyd flies out, Jeremy Burnitz rifles one into the right-field corner. Burnitz foolishly tries to take third on the throw as Ramirez heads for the plate, but the throw is cut off by Quakes’ 1B Lyle Overbay, and Ramirez is a dead duck. Or would have been, if Overbay hadn’t thrown the ball down the left field line, as Burnitz gets to his feet and comes in with the tying run. The Cyclones score 3 in the 12th, and force a sixth game with an unlikely 8-5 victory.
Game 6: Overbay, weighted down by the fear that he will take his place alongside Billy Buckner in baseball lore, goes 0 for 3, but it doesn’t matter. Four singles off of Brandon Webb in the bottom of the 2nd lead to three Castaic runs, and the only thing the Cyclones can muster against Jason Jennings is Burnitz’s solo homer. Castaic wins the championship in six games with a 4-1 win.
STUDS AND DUDS. Brett Myers picks up the Series MVP award with brilliant pitching performances in the 1st and 4th games: his series line is a 2-0 record, 0.53 ERA, with 5 hits and 4 walks in 17 IP. Jones was hardly a non-entity, capping a spectacular season and playoff run with a .333 BA, and 2 HR and 7 RBI in the six games. In fact, most of the Castaic hitters had an excellent series: the team hit .290, with no fewer than 10 players hitting .300 or better. The pitchers weren’t too bad, either, finishing with a 2.53 ERA and holding Brooklyn to a .224 batting average for the series. One of the few Quakes who did have a bad series was Dave Roberts, who managed only a .136 average from the lead-off position.
As for Brooklyn, they’d surprised in the playoffs, winning two series despite finishing the season only two games over .500. But they came down to earth in the championships. Their star hitter, Aramis Ramirez, who’d batted .296 with 32 HR’s, hit only .192 for the Series. Jake Peavy, who’d gone 12-3 with a 2.99 ERA on the season and had won 4 games in the playoffs, went 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA. Alex Gonzalez was the only Cyclone to hit over .300, and Clay Hensley pitched 4 2/3 innings of hitless relief.
Game 2: The Cyclones get off to a good start on Ty Wigginton’s two-run round-tripper in the first, but the Quakes tie it up in the bottom of the inning. By the 4th, Brooklyn’s clinging to a 3-2 lead, but some aggressive base-running blows the game open. With two out and Alex Gonzalez on first, Carlos Zambrano hits a single to right. The third base coach, quickly calculating that Gonzalez has no more than a 55% chance of advancing the extra base, puts up the stop sign, but Gonzalez blows right through it, just barely beating the throw as Zambrano takes second. Juan Pierre hits a 17-hopper up the middle, and winds up on second as Zambrano lumbers to the plate, beating the throw again. Wigginton lines one to left to cap the three-run inning, which finishes off the scoring for the game, as Brooklyn evens the series with a 6-2 win.
Game 3: The first two games weren’t close, and as the teams move to Brooklyn, neither is this one. Zach Duke, in a surprise start for Brooklyn, holds up fairly well, but can’t get out of the 6th, and Castaic pummels three Brooklyn relievers for six runs in a 9-4 victory.
Game 4: Peavy gets pounded again, giving up five runs in the first two innings. He settles down after that, but it’s too late: Myers turns in another masterful game, pitching a 1-hit shutout as Castaic takes a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 6-0 win.
Game 5: Seeking to force the series back to Castaic, the Cyclones send Zambrano to the mound, but Jones solves him for a three-run homer in the first, and the game enters the eighth inning with Castaic holding a comfortable 5-1 lead, just six outs from a world championship. Once more, though, Brooklyn’s daring on the basepaths pays off. With one out, Wigginton’s double and Chase Utley’s triple, followed by a wild pitch, bring the Cyclones to within two. Aramis Ramirez works a walk, and after Cliff Floyd flies out, Jeremy Burnitz rifles one into the right-field corner. Burnitz foolishly tries to take third on the throw as Ramirez heads for the plate, but the throw is cut off by Quakes’ 1B Lyle Overbay, and Ramirez is a dead duck. Or would have been, if Overbay hadn’t thrown the ball down the left field line, as Burnitz gets to his feet and comes in with the tying run. The Cyclones score 3 in the 12th, and force a sixth game with an unlikely 8-5 victory.
Game 6: Overbay, weighted down by the fear that he will take his place alongside Billy Buckner in baseball lore, goes 0 for 3, but it doesn’t matter. Four singles off of Brandon Webb in the bottom of the 2nd lead to three Castaic runs, and the only thing the Cyclones can muster against Jason Jennings is Burnitz’s solo homer. Castaic wins the championship in six games with a 4-1 win.
STUDS AND DUDS. Brett Myers picks up the Series MVP award with brilliant pitching performances in the 1st and 4th games: his series line is a 2-0 record, 0.53 ERA, with 5 hits and 4 walks in 17 IP. Jones was hardly a non-entity, capping a spectacular season and playoff run with a .333 BA, and 2 HR and 7 RBI in the six games. In fact, most of the Castaic hitters had an excellent series: the team hit .290, with no fewer than 10 players hitting .300 or better. The pitchers weren’t too bad, either, finishing with a 2.53 ERA and holding Brooklyn to a .224 batting average for the series. One of the few Quakes who did have a bad series was Dave Roberts, who managed only a .136 average from the lead-off position.
As for Brooklyn, they’d surprised in the playoffs, winning two series despite finishing the season only two games over .500. But they came down to earth in the championships. Their star hitter, Aramis Ramirez, who’d batted .296 with 32 HR’s, hit only .192 for the Series. Jake Peavy, who’d gone 12-3 with a 2.99 ERA on the season and had won 4 games in the playoffs, went 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA. Alex Gonzalez was the only Cyclone to hit over .300, and Clay Hensley pitched 4 2/3 innings of hitless relief.
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