A Strat-O-Matic Computer Baseball League

Friday, March 30, 2007

The Draft

What I liked about my draft: I did most of what I wanted to do: picked up left-handed hitting, defense in the outfield, a good reserve catcher, and loads of relief pitching. In the minor league draft, I got Lincecum and one of the better-ranked shortstop prospects.

What I didn't like: I'd wanted to pick up a few prospects in the major-league draft, like Chris Iannetta, but waited too long. Now I'm left to depend on retreads, hoping that Andy Sisco rediscovers himself with the White Sox, which is like hoping that Britney Spears develops class. When my Over Their Head Gang crashes and burns this season, I'll return next season to losing 90 games. As for the minor league draft, even with the 10 picks I had, the bad decisions I've made over the past few years have left me with fewer true prospects than any other team in the league.

My breakout player this year (in real life): Chris Young. He better be; everybody has him as a major impact player. But three years ago, in another league, I drafted Jeremy Reed, another centerfielder with the same type of glowing reviews. And you know what happened to him.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Outfielders

Phil,

You might want to talk to Texas. They've got 9 of them, with over 3300 primary at-bats. VBO has a bunch of them, too, but Art's going to be out for about a week.

Russ

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Roswell looking for OF

If anyone has extra OF, contact me for trade!

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Creating a Computer Manager

I've started this post to share some tips on creating computer managers from things I've learned from others. If you've got some, please share them as well. (If you want to blame anyone for this, blame Stu. He's the one who asked me for some info on creating a CM).

The Basics. CM creation is done off the TEAM item on the menu bar. The first thing you'll want to do is Promote/Demote Minor Leaguers, to select which players to have on your 25-man roster each block. After that, you want to Update Default Lineups.

HAL will provide two basic lineups, one against lefties and one against righties. Unless you're going to play the same eight guys in the same slot every day, you'll want to add more. I usually copy the 1st lineup to the 3rd slot and the 2nd to the 4th, and use the 3rd and 4th slots for reverse lefties and reverse righties. (You can change the description for the lineup by writing it in the box next to "pre-set": for example, "Rev Left" or "L 9R-1R.")

Normally, HAL will create its own Reverse lineups in the 3rd and 4th spots. However, your human opponent has to insert the correct lineup in the game before playing it, and if you only have two lineups, one of those is the lineup that's going to be played; you won't get the benefit of the lineup HAL created to handle reverse pitching matchups.

Once that's done, everything else is handled under Update Computer Manager. Let's take it one step at a time.

Pitchers. At a minimum, you can set your starting rotation, your set-up men (left and right), and your closer. You can do a good bit more than that. First, you can set the characteristics of each pitcher. If you double-click on the pitcher's name in the blue box on the upper left, you'll get a pop-up box that allows you to check off a variety of options, which are pretty much self-explanatory. You don't have to consider each box for each pitcher, but "quick hook/slow hook" is something you want to consider for starters, and "avoid lefties/avoid righties" for certain relievers. ("Quick hook/slow hook" also works there; if you've got a left-handed specialist, check both "avoid righties" and "quick hook.") If you've got a good bullpen, you'll want to make sure to have your starters pulled as soon as they show fatigue (level falls below 9); a Chris Carpenter on a team with a bad bullpen might merit staying in the game if he falls to a 7 or even a 6.

Starter Schedule. You can create your own starting schedule, by moving pitchers into dates on the schedule. If you don't, your rotation will cycle through the five starters you selected under Pitchers. Setting up your own schedule is a bit more work, but it lets you take advantage of off-days and good or bad opposing team matchups.

Batters. In addition to setting up pinch-hitters, a pinch-runner, and defensive replacements, you can also set individual traits for hitters, the same way you did for pitchers: double-click on the hitter, and a pop-up box will appear, letting you check which ones you want. Again, they're self-explanatory, and you don't have to make a big deal out of each batter. If you've got a guy who should never bat against lefties, or who should never try to steal, this is the place to do it.

Manager Tendencies. This lets you make the general strategy choices of a manager: being conservative on the basepaths, in the use tactics like the intentional walk, etc.

Super HAL Baserunning. You can use this feature to be even more definitive: it allows you to define exactly what your CM will do in every base advance situation. If that's a bit much, you can only do it for certain situations, and allow the normal CM setting (aggressive, conservative, etc.) to take care of everything else. For example, setting Super HAL to 90% for going to third with none or two out makes virtually certain that you'll never get thrown out doing that. (See Super Hal Baserunning in the Help index.)

Super HAL Bullpen. This lets you set up detailed instructions for the use of your bullpen: the order in which relievers will be put into the game, making sure that your closer gets into every possible save situation, etc. You really need to read the Help index under Super Hal Bullpen to get a handle on everything you can do with this. The most daunting task there is setting up the "orders," that is, the possible situations that might arise in a game: a blowout, you leading or behind by one or two runs in the late innings, you ahead in the 9th by 3 runs or less, etc. A few years back, I found one that had been preset with most of those, and I simply downloaded it and have been using it since. If you want to download the same one, just click on Copy Super Hal Bullpen Logic under Team, copy it from the 2006 Westpark team to your 2007 team, then go in and arrange the pitchers you want to have appear in those situations.

Those are my tips. Anybody else got any?

Friday, March 23, 2007

Lefties

It's well-accepted wisdom that left-handed starters perform worse in Strat leagues than they do in real life, especially in small and medium leagues. (Ours would be regarded as medium; although it's only 12 teams, we limit ourselves to the player pool of the 16 teams in the NL.) Is it true?

To find out, I took a look at the stats, specifically how teams did against left-handed and right-handed starters. (One of the stats on the first page of the Team Stats display.) That gave some support for the notion; only one team finished with a substantially worse record against lefties than righties. (Two others finished at .500 against LH's, and 2 games above that for RH's). That team was Castaic, which finished 71-56 versus RH's (.559), but only 15-20 (.429) against LH's. That might just be due to luck, though: the team hit and slugged almost identically versus both (.268 BA, .454 SA against lefties, .268 BA, .460 SA against righties).

Averaging it out, over the course of a full season teams would have wound up winning about 7 more games if they'd faced all left-handed starters than if they'd faced all right-handed starters. Excluding Castaic, it was a difference of almost 10 games.

Then I checked left-handed starters. That wasn't as difficult as it sounds; turns out that there were only 10 lefties in our league who pitched more than 150 innings. Of those 10, exactly half gave up at least a hit per inning more than they did in real life, and two others saw their H/9 rise by at least .5. Only one had an H/9 at least .5 less than in real life. That wasn't because the lefties were all on bad teams, either. West Allis went 86-76, but their two top starters, Dontrelle Willis and Chris Capuano, didn't perform nearly as well as their stats indicated they should. Capuano, for example, was 20-13 with a 3.99 ERA for Milwaukee in 2005; for the Cheesewedgers, he managed only 8-10 and a 4.83.

Which makes me feel so, so much better for having cut him instead of Al Leiter two years ago...

Then again, it may be that starters just don't do as well in Strat leagues, regardless of which arm they use. I went back and checked the teams that had those left-handed starters, and their rightie counterparts didn't fare any better: of the 7 RH's, 4 had H/9's over a hit higher, and 1 had an H/9 half a hit higher. Roy Oswalt of the Maulers, for example, went 22-13 with a 2.94 ERA and 9.0 H/9 for Houston in 2005; for Maui, those stats were 15-12, 4.36, and 11.2.One thing I did note, though: while no LH starter substantially overperformed, several RH's did. Matt Clement and Brad Penny, for example, both shaved over a run off their real-life ERA's. Clement's H/9 was 9.0 for Boston, 7.4 for Roswell.

Bottom line: my guess is left-handed starters aren't the disaster some claim them to be, but the chances of them performing worse than they did in real life is much greater than that they'll perform better. You'll get more even performance out of right-handers.

Dee-Fense!!!

It's accepted wisdom in baseball that you need good defense up the middle to win championships, and the corresponding theory of Strat is that means you need at least 2's, 3's at worst, at SS, 2B, and CF. Is it true? Just how important is defense?

I had an interesting take on it while playing Castaic in the recent playoff series with Conn River, sitting in for Steve Maljan while he's recuperating from surgery. It didn't really hit me until I looked out on the field at my defense in about the third game, and realized that I had at least a 2 at every position except catcher, where Rod Barajas was a 3 (but with a -1 arm), and 1st base, where Lyle Overbay was a 3. Plus, I had 1's in centerfield (Andruw Jones) and shorstop (Jack Wilson). Considering that my Westpark team usually sported a lineup containing no fewer than five 4's, this was a welcome change of pace.

And then it dawned on me. One of the great advantages Strat has over baseball is in the evaluation of defense. In real baseball, despite the addition of metrics like range factors and zone ratings, measuring defense still remains highly subjective. Not so in Strat: while fans can debate who's the better fielder in real life, Rafael Furcal or Jack Wilson, in the Strat game, Wilson's a 1 and Furcal is a 2, and that settles that.

What's really great is that you can also measure exactly the effect of the defense, because the game keeps track of that. If you look at the "2nd Grand Totals" in the League Stats page, you'll find the totals for X-chances, X-outs, and X-percentage. The X-chances, of course, are the times in the games where you get that "ss(X)" dice roll, and the result of the play is determined by that defender's range and error rating. That happened a little over 5 times a game per team during the season.

For the league, that play turned into an out 72% of the time, on average. Some teams were worse, like Appleton and Westpark at 66%. One team, though was way above the league average: Steve Maljan's Quakes, at 82%. What did that mean in real numbers, though? Castaic had 794 X-chances during the season, converting 651 of them into outs. Had its defense performed at the league average, it would have converted only 572 of those chances into outs. In short, Castaic converted about 79 fielding chances into outs that would have been hits or errors with a league-average defense.

That's not a lot; it works out to less than one every two games. It's not going to be spaced like that, and a hit instead of an out at the wrong time can be disastrous in the context of a single game, especially considering that that hit could be a two-base error, a double, or even a triple. On the other hand, there are a lot of times when it won't mean anything. Assuming that 2.3 of the "unconverted" chances equal one run (which is generous), that's about 34 runs over the course of a season, or about 3 wins. That doesn't mean you should feel comfortable about playing 4's at 2B and SS. But Jack Wilson's glove isn't going to be enough to make up for Rafael Furcal's bat.

And in a short series, you're not sure if defense is going to show up. In the 6-game playoff series with Conn River, Castaic converted only 66% of their X-chances; the Patriots converted 86%, but still won only 2 games. I don't know how many hits Andruw Jones prevented with his glove, but I doubt it was equal to the 6 home runs and 11 RBI he hit.

Castaic wins 2006 Liberty League Championship

Game 1: Jake Peavy has dazzled for the Cyclones in the playoffs up to this point, but the Quakes have no problem solving him, pounding him for six runs in six innings. Andruw Jones, fresh off of winning the MVP for the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, throws his hat into the ring for the same honor in the Championship, driving in two runs with a double in the first inning, and clubbing a two-run homer in the fifth. Meanwhile, Brett Myers cruises, giving up just one run and four hits in eight innings, while striking out 10. The only Brooklyn run comes on Cliff Floyd’s homer in the fourth, and Castaic wins 8-1.

Game 2: The Cyclones get off to a good start on Ty Wigginton’s two-run round-tripper in the first, but the Quakes tie it up in the bottom of the inning. By the 4th, Brooklyn’s clinging to a 3-2 lead, but some aggressive base-running blows the game open. With two out and Alex Gonzalez on first, Carlos Zambrano hits a single to right. The third base coach, quickly calculating that Gonzalez has no more than a 55% chance of advancing the extra base, puts up the stop sign, but Gonzalez blows right through it, just barely beating the throw as Zambrano takes second. Juan Pierre hits a 17-hopper up the middle, and winds up on second as Zambrano lumbers to the plate, beating the throw again. Wigginton lines one to left to cap the three-run inning, which finishes off the scoring for the game, as Brooklyn evens the series with a 6-2 win.

Game 3: The first two games weren’t close, and as the teams move to Brooklyn, neither is this one. Zach Duke, in a surprise start for Brooklyn, holds up fairly well, but can’t get out of the 6th, and Castaic pummels three Brooklyn relievers for six runs in a 9-4 victory.

Game 4: Peavy gets pounded again, giving up five runs in the first two innings. He settles down after that, but it’s too late: Myers turns in another masterful game, pitching a 1-hit shutout as Castaic takes a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 6-0 win.

Game 5: Seeking to force the series back to Castaic, the Cyclones send Zambrano to the mound, but Jones solves him for a three-run homer in the first, and the game enters the eighth inning with Castaic holding a comfortable 5-1 lead, just six outs from a world championship. Once more, though, Brooklyn’s daring on the basepaths pays off. With one out, Wigginton’s double and Chase Utley’s triple, followed by a wild pitch, bring the Cyclones to within two. Aramis Ramirez works a walk, and after Cliff Floyd flies out, Jeremy Burnitz rifles one into the right-field corner. Burnitz foolishly tries to take third on the throw as Ramirez heads for the plate, but the throw is cut off by Quakes’ 1B Lyle Overbay, and Ramirez is a dead duck. Or would have been, if Overbay hadn’t thrown the ball down the left field line, as Burnitz gets to his feet and comes in with the tying run. The Cyclones score 3 in the 12th, and force a sixth game with an unlikely 8-5 victory.

Game 6: Overbay, weighted down by the fear that he will take his place alongside Billy Buckner in baseball lore, goes 0 for 3, but it doesn’t matter. Four singles off of Brandon Webb in the bottom of the 2nd lead to three Castaic runs, and the only thing the Cyclones can muster against Jason Jennings is Burnitz’s solo homer. Castaic wins the championship in six games with a 4-1 win.

STUDS AND DUDS. Brett Myers picks up the Series MVP award with brilliant pitching performances in the 1st and 4th games: his series line is a 2-0 record, 0.53 ERA, with 5 hits and 4 walks in 17 IP. Jones was hardly a non-entity, capping a spectacular season and playoff run with a .333 BA, and 2 HR and 7 RBI in the six games. In fact, most of the Castaic hitters had an excellent series: the team hit .290, with no fewer than 10 players hitting .300 or better. The pitchers weren’t too bad, either, finishing with a 2.53 ERA and holding Brooklyn to a .224 batting average for the series. One of the few Quakes who did have a bad series was Dave Roberts, who managed only a .136 average from the lead-off position.

As for Brooklyn, they’d surprised in the playoffs, winning two series despite finishing the season only two games over .500. But they came down to earth in the championships. Their star hitter, Aramis Ramirez, who’d batted .296 with 32 HR’s, hit only .192 for the Series. Jake Peavy, who’d gone 12-3 with a 2.99 ERA on the season and had won 4 games in the playoffs, went 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA. Alex Gonzalez was the only Cyclone to hit over .300, and Clay Hensley pitched 4 2/3 innings of hitless relief.