PLAYOFF PREVIEWOnly four teams qualified for the playoffs this year, the lowest number in our four-year history. A few months ago, Baseball Prospectus did a study of previous championship teams and determined that the the most common attributes were (1) power pitchers (high K totals) (2) a dominant closer, and (3) a good defense. With that in mind, let's take a look at the survivors.
WESTPARK(1) Power pitchers. A strikout rate of 7.5 or more per 9 innings is generally regarded as indicative of a strong power pitcher. Kazmir (10.6), Vazquez (9.1), and Schilling (8.6) easily meet this. What's more, unlike many power pitchers, they feature good to excellent control, especially Schilling (1.5 BB/9) and Vazquez (2.2).
Grade: A.
(2) Closer. Say no more. Joe Nathan led the league in saves with 42 (in 46 opportunities), and had a 1.31 ERA and a ridiculous WHIP of .66.
Grade: A+
(3) Defense. More than an Achilles heel: the defense would have to go up several levels merely to be labeled "porous." They had the 2nd-lowest X-out %, and when they did manage to get to a ball, the result often wasn't any better: they had the 2nd-most errors in the league, leading to 75 unearned runs, a performance which was exceeded only by Richmond with 84.
Grade: F.
CONN RIVER
(1) Power Pitching: Although only Cain and Weaver finished above the 7.5 cutoff, Padilla and Millwood were relatively close (6.8 and 6.6, respectively). And they have a lot of flamethrowers in the bullpen, enough so that as a team they finished 2nd in strikeouts.
Grade: A-.
(2) Closer. A problem. Jonathon Broxton had the highest closer rating, with a 2, and did save 19 games, with a 1.80 ERA. But he blew 6 saves, and overall the bullpen converted 68% of their save chances, good only for sixth place.
Grade: C+
(3) Defense. Because of platoon splits, defense is slightly worse against lefties than righties. Finished slightly below average in errors, slightly above in X-out %.
Grade: C+.
MAUI(1) Power Pitching: Nothing special; only Burnett exceeds the 7.5 threshold, and that barely (7.6). Finished in the middle of the pack in strikeouts overall. Grade: C.
(2) Closer: Another team with no true closer. Farnsworth saved 20 out of 25, with a 2.80 ERA, but that could be a fluke; his real-life ERA was 4.36, and he gave up over 2 hits per nine innings there than he did for the Maulers. Overall, the team converted only 64% of its save chances. The bullpen did have a 2.90 ERA, good for 2nd in the league behind Westpark's 2.70.
Grade: C.
(3) Defense: Strong up the middle (9), and decent on the corners (12), although LoDuca has a relatively weak arm at catcher. Fourth in errors, but 1st in X-out %.
Grade: A.
VIRGINIA BEACH(1) Power Pitching: Ben Sheets (11.2 K/9) and Brad Penny (8.0) can bring it, the others, not so much. That includes the bullpen; overall, the team finished 11th in the league in strikeouts.
Grade: C-.
(2) Closer: Joe Borowski didn't have great peripheral stats, but he did save 28 games in 31 chances. Overall, the bullpen was decent, saving 72% of their chances and compiling a 3.55 ERA, about middle of the pack.
Grade: B
(3) Defense: Not particularly good up the middle (12), and bad on the corners (15). Barrett's got a very weak arm at catcher. Despite that, they finished better than league average in errors, and about league average in X-out %.
Grade: C.
SUMMARY: This is a toss-up; all four teams have strengths and flaws. On paper, Westpark would look to have the best chance, with a powerful lineup, three top-notch starters, and a lights-out closer, but they lack a dominant starter like a Sanchez or Weaver, and it's easy to see their defense costing them a game or two, death in a short series. Conn River's hitting and pitching is strong, and their defense is adequate, but you have to wonder if the lack of a true closer is going to hurt them. Maui isn't going to make any mistakes on defense, and they've got sluggers like Ryan Howard and David Wright, but the lineup's thin after that: they finished near the league bottom in home runs and runs scored. VBO lacks the long-ball punch -- only one player hit 20 or more home runs -- but they led the league in batting average, and their ability to score runs is demonstrated by the fact that Bobby Abreu led the league in that category.
